The Milwaukee Brewers have a tough schedule in the month of April, but have come out of the gate with their best start in franchise history despite some key injuries in their bullpen. On the opposite side of this matchup, the Chicago Cubs have been stymied by the Rangers and then came out flat against the Braves. Can the Cubs get back on track or will the Brew Crew continue to roll on Saturday when these two division rivals matchup on national television?
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Brewers is scheduled for Saturday, April 6, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Brewers beat the Cubs in Game 163 to win the NL Central title, but Chicago still won the season series between the two clubs, taking 11 of their 20 meetings while outscoring the Brew Crew by a total of four runs in those 20 contests.
The Cubs come into play on Saturday having struggled on the young season while Milwaukee has played great to start the year. Last year’s head-to-head stats favor the Cubs slightly, but the momentum—along with home field advantage—weighs this one to the Brewers.
The biggest difference between these two teams right now is the bullpen. Both teams, obviously, need the starters to pitch well, but the pen will be crucial.
The Cubs’ bullpen has been bad this year. Brad Brach, Brandon Kintzler and Steve Cishek have been okay in limited samplings, but Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards Jr. have gotten off to poor starts. With Brandon Morrow on the IL, the pen is diminished to start.
Two of the team’s first three losses were credited to the pen even though the starting pitching struggled. The offense played well enough in three of four games to keep the team in it, but the pen gave it up.
For the Brewers, the pen is their strength. Even with Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel down, the still has some depth in Chase Anderson and Junior Guerra.
The ninth inning is also on lockdown with Josh Hader pitching just as nasty as ever with 10 strikeouts and four saves in five innings pitched. The Cubs have questions in the ninth. The Brewers have answers.
Probable Pitchers
On paper, the rotation for the Cubs has the clear edge over the Brewers, but it hasn’t played that way on the young season. For Saturday’s game, the Cubs’ starter remains up in the air though Cole Hamels is in line to make the start. He’s got the track record over the Brewers’ hurler who figures to be young right-hander Corbin Burnes.
Burnes made his Major League debut last year, but saw just 38 innings all out of the pen though he pitched well with a 2.61 ERA and a 7-0 record in 30 games.
Prior to making it to The Show, he was used as a starter in the minors. A former top-100 prospect, Burnes struggled in the PCL last year with a 5.15 ERA in Colorado Springs, but breezed through High-A and Double-A ball.
This spring, Burnes went in with a chance to win a spot in the rotation and did just that thanks largely to an impressive strikeout to walk ratio of 26:4.
In his first start at the big league level, Burnes went five innings against the Cardinals, allowing four runs on six hits, including three home runs. Paul Goldschimdt, Matt Carpenter and Paul DeJong all took Burnes deep last time out. He’ll have to do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard, but he did show flashes of his dominance with 12 strikeouts in those five frames while walking only a single batter.
While the hard contact is alarming. Burnes also showed an impressive spin rate in his start which should help him prevent so much hard contact going forward.
On the other side of this matchup, Hamels is a career 3.41 ERA pitcher in his 14th year in the Majors. The 35-year old southpaw struggled in Texas last year before being traded to the Cubs and pitching to a 2.36 ERA in a dozen games.
Hamels returned to Texas for his first start of 2019 and the Rangers tore into him for five runs in five innings of work. The southpaw walked three batters and allowed a homer along with five other hits. That’s concerning, but he’s had issues in that park. Pitching in Milwaukee on Saturday should yield better results.
After all, Hamels has generally had solid success against the Brewers. He went six innings of two-run ball in his only start against them last year, also at Miller Park. In his career, he’s 7-3 with a 3.60 ERA in 15 starts against the Brew Crew and 4-1 in eight starts at Miller Park. Despite the solid overall numbers against Milwaukee, against the current crop of Brewers he’s had some issues. Ryan Braun is 13-for-40 against him with three bombs, Hernan Perez is 6-for-11, and the red-hot Christian Yelich is 7-for-22 with three doubles, a homer and three walks.
Live Betting
The Cubs’ bats put up some huge runs in their series against the Texas Rangers, but came out cold against the Braves in that series opener, getting shutout.
Chicago was a good offense last year and a healthy Kris Bryant and a couple bounce back seasons from others should make it even better in 2019, but the team had random games were the bats went quiet in 2018 and we saw one of those on Monday.
Still, the Cubs have some prolific bats. Javier Baez is off to a hot start as are Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber.
As good as some of the Cubs’ bats are swinging, Christian Yelich has been otherworldly for the Brewers to start the year. After posting a .326/.402/.598 slash line last year with 36 bombs and 110 driven in, he’s followed that up with a 9-for-22 start with six walks and four home runs.
Yelich really developed into a superstar with a 1.219 OPS in the second half last year and he’s keeping that going through a handful of games in 2019.
Yasmani Grandal has yet to get the bat going. The same goes for Jesus Aguilar, Orlando Arcia, and Eric Thames. Even Lorenzo Cain, to a lesser extent, has been a bit slower starting. Still, this Brewers’ team has an above-average bat at every position with a couple to spare on the bench as well. This lineup is deep and powerful from Cain and Yelich at the top to sluggers like Aguilar and Travis Shaw in the middle and the likes of Arcia at the bottom.
MLB Pick
Look for Cain and Yelich to help the Brewers generate some early offense and grab a quick lead against Hamels.
From there, Hamels should keep the Cubs in the game, but look for Burnes to pitch better in his second Major League start with some the jitters out of the way. The Cubs, of course, will score some runs on Burnes and could add on against the pen, but look for the Brewers’ pen to out pitch the Cubs.
Milwaukee will shorten the game, too, as Hader saves this one and the Brewers boast yet another intradivisional win in a close game.
MLB Odds: Brewers 6, Cubs 5
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