The longball is back baby! Aaron Judge became the first player to hit 60+ home runs in a season since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa did it back in 2001, and that led to Judge being named the American League MVP. Judge has freakish power and has been installed as the favorite to smash the most home runs in the league once again this season, as only one other player hit more than 40 home runs in 2022 (Kyle Schwarber with 46 dingers). However, there are real concerns about his ability to repeat as he is on the wrong side of 30 and has only played 150 games or more in a season twice in his seven-year career.
2023 MLB Most Home Runs Odds
Aaron Judge +550
Mike Trout +850
Pete Alonso +900
Yordan Alvarez +1000
Kyle Schwarber +1100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1200
Austin Riley +1300
Fernando Tatis Jr. +1400
Shohei Ohtani +1500
Matt Olson +1900
Kyle Tucker +2200
Giancarlo Stanton +2500
Ronald Acuna Jr. +2500
Julio Rodriguez +3000
Juan Soto +3000
Eloy Jimenez +3000
All Other Players +3500 or More
2023 MLB Home Run Leaders Odds
Aaron Judge +550
This is arguably the worst value on the board, as its hard to imagine that Aaron Judge stays extremely healthy for a third straight season. Judge missed 50 or more games in four of his first five seasons in the majors, leading to a lot of what-ifs. He has been motivated to play through pain and small injuries the last couple years with the hope of landing a major contract extension, and now that he has that in his pocket, we may not see the same durability. There’s no doubt that he does have the pure power and ball striking ability to hit 60+ home runs again, but health is a huge, huge red flag.
Mike Trout +850
Speaking of health, the great Mike Trout has missed a lot of games over the last two seasons. Trout missed more than 75% of the season in 2021, and he missed more than a quarter of last year, and he is now on the wrong side of 30 too. Trout has never led the league in home runs and has never hit more than 45 dingers in a season. He did crush 40 homers last season, and he led the AL in OPS+ for five straight seasons, but it’s hard to imagine him being able to put it together for a full season to lead the league in homers at this stage in his career. Stay away from backing Trout at this price.
Pete Alonso +900
The Polar Bear is the first favorite that you should consider betting at the current price. Pete Alonso led the league in home runs as a rookie in 2019 with 53 long balls, and he won the Home Run Derby in both 2021 and 2019. Alonso has hit 77 home runs in the last two seasons, and he has plenty of protection around him in the New York Mets’ lineup that a 50 home run season is definitely doable. The move to balanced schedules will be a big boost for him too as he no longer has to face dominant NL East pitchers more than other big hitters.
Yordan Alvarez +1000
Will Yordan Alvarez have enough plate appearances to hit a ton of home runs in 2023? That’s the big question you have to consider before betting this prop. Alvarez is only 25 years old, but he has not played in more than 144 games in a season yet in his career. We haven’t seen him hit more than 37 home runs in a single season, and he might not have the opportunity to crush that many longballs considering the insane depth that Houston has in its lineup.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1200
I skipped Kyle Schwarber because the other player to consider betting on here is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 12-1. Guerrero did not have a great 2022 campaign by his standards, hitting just 32 home runs after leading the majors with 48 dingers in 2021. Pitchers made their adjustments to Guerrero, and now it’s time for him to adjust in his own right and take advantage of hitter friendly parks.
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