The 2021 French Open begins on Sunday, May 30 and it should come as no surprise that Rafael Nadal is the odds-on favorite on the men’s side. Nadal will be looking to win his 14th French Open. To put that in some perspective, Nadal has won more French Open titles than Pete Sampras won Grand Slam titles. Nadal is listed at -135, with Novak Djokovic the second choice at +350. The only other player listed at single-digit odds is Stefanos Tsitsipas at odds of +780.
Let’s look at the 2021 French Open, odds and picks.
2021 Men’s French Open Odds
Rafael Nadal -135
Novak Djokovic +350
Stefanos Tsitsipas +780
Dominic Thiem +1050
Alexander Zverev +1700
Jannik Sinner +3200
Andrey Rublev +3200
Casper Ruud +4200
Aslan Karatsev +6000
Matteo Berrettini +6000
Roger Federer +7000
Daniil Medvedev +7500
Denis Shapovalov +8000
All other players are listed with odds of +10000 or more
There is no question that Nadal is the top choice to win the French Open, as he has won the title 13 times. He has been completely dominant on clay throughout his career. He is playing well, having already won in Barcelona this year, but he did look beatable in Monte Carlo and Madrid. It is hard to bet against Nadal at the French Open, but there is no value in betting him at his current number.
Nadal has won 20 Grand Slam titles in his career and could surpass Federer for the most all-time with a win in the French Open. Nadal does not think he will have an easy time. "I think there is plenty of players that are doing great," Nadal said to the media, "Dominic Thiem, he's always a big candidate, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rublev, maybe Shapovalov. I really believe that there are plenty of players that are doing well. There is a lot of great players that are in good shape. And of course, there are the players that we know, like Novak and Roger. So let's see what can happen." Nadal also had good things to say about Ruud and thinks he could be a threat.
The obvious choice if Nadal doesn’t win would be to take Djokovic, but his odds of +350 don’t present much value. Djokovic is also not as good on clay as other surfaces and it is really hard to take him at odds so low.
If you want to take one of the top three betting choices then you may want to go with Tsitsipas at odds of +780. He is playing really well on clay this season and would be the most likely threat to Nadal.
I think there are a couple of live longshots to consider in this year’s French Open on the men’s side. Casper Ruud is someone that Nadal thinks has a chance to challenge him this year and Ruud is listed at odds of +4200.
Another player to take a flyer on is Denis Shapovalov at odds of +8000. He played well against Nadal in Rome and actually had some match points against Nadal. He is young and has a big serve that can do damage. He could be worth a shot at big odds.
French Open Picks
If you like Nadal then I am sure not going to try and talk you out of taking him because he is the clear favorite. I just can’t back him at his current odds. I also don’t want any part of Djokovic at his odds. I am tempted to take Tsitsipas but I was hoping for double-digit odds. I think taking a couple of longshots is the better way to go. Nadal is giving Ruud a chance and that is good enough for me, so I will take him at odds of 40-1. Nadal also mentioned Shapovalov and his odds of 80-1 are definitely appealing. Keep an eye on the live betting options throughout the French Open, as they may present some excellent opportunities on a player like Nadal or on someone like Ruud.
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