The Baddest Man on the Planet, Stipe Miocic, is back on action this Saturday, with the opportunity to avenge a loss while earning a second title defense. A win over former champion Junior Dos Santos would also tie the record for most heavyweight title defenses - that’s right, nobody has ever made it to three.
It’s a compelling rematch of a 2014 affair where Dos Santos emerged a bloodied up winner. But they’re meeting under vastly different circumstances. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the fight from all betting angles.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Main Event
Heavyweight Championship
Junior Dos Santos +115
Stipe Miocic -135
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -200, under +170
Odds Analysis
Since opening at +170 on February 20, Dos Santos’ money line has gone down to +115. This indicated that most of the early action has been on the Brazilian. In the same time, Miocic has gone from -200 to -135. Clearly, bettors are seeing JDS as a real underdog threat.
The Case for Miocic
The heavyweight champion is the more well-rounded fighter. A former NCAA D1 wrestler and Golden Gloves champ, Miocic has evolved fittingly into a boxer-puncher. He is one of the division’s better overall athletes, giving him the speed and power to be successful in every MMA phase.
Miocic always comes prepared for specific opponents. Against Mark Hunt, a K-1 kickboxer, Miocic made takedowns a big part of his strategy. When facing Arlovski, a notoriously glass-chinned fighter, Miocic pressured until he could land a big shot. Against a slower Roy Nelson, the Cleveland native cracked from the outside to avoid Big Country’s power shots.
There’s no doubt he will have a tailored gameplan for Dos Santos. But his biggest advantage might simply be the fact that he is the fresher fighter. Skillwise, he will not dominate in any one area against JDS. But he has taken far less damage and has not gone through the wars that Dos Santos has. That could be the differencemaker in this matchup.
The Case for Dos Santos
Long heralded as the division’s best pure technical boxer, Dos Santos has always excelled at keeping fights on the feet. Like Miocic, JDS is a fine athlete - quick to sprawl and blessed with hip explosion that lets him escape on the rare occasion he is taken down.
In this matchup, it doesn’t appear that Miocic has the overwhelming strength nor the relentless pressure to win by wrestling - Cain Velasquez he is not. That means this fight likely plays out as a sparring match, which is exactly where the challenger wants it. This by no means guarantees a win, but it greatly increases his chances.
The big question here is whether Dos Santos can hold up in a five-round firefight. He’s coming off a convincing win over Ben Rothwell where he went 25 minutes, but Miocic is much quicker than the lumbering Rothwell.
How You Should Bet
Gamblers who bet early on Dos Santos were smart to take advantage of +170 underdog odds. At +115, JDS is less enticing yet still has som. However, recent performances would suggest this is Miocic’s fight to lose - he has never looked better while JDS has alternated bad losses with tough wins dating back to 2012.
Because Miocic is far more affordable now, he is the smart pick as a slight favorite.
UFC odds pick: Miocic to win at -135
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UFC 211 takes place on Saturday, May 13, 2017 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas. The card airs live on pay-per-view following the FS1 prelims.
