All eyes are going to be glued to Pimlico Race Course this weekend for the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes.
However, on the eve of the race, some of the top older ponies will be on the same dirt track running 1 3/16 as well in the Pimlico Special.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Tapiture – 9/2
2: Transparent – 6/1
3: Encryption – 10/1
4: Albano – 8/1
5: Page McKenney – 15/1
6: Kid Cruz – 15/1
7: Vyjack – 15/1
8: Top Billing – 12/1
9: Cat Burglar – 5/1
10: Commissioner – 5/2
The one thing that you're getting in this field for sure is a lot of different colts who can win. Yes, there is the overwhelming favorite in Commissioner, but there also isn't that one pony in the field who you know you can count out right away. Even the longest shots on the board, Vyjack and Kid Cruz, are both only a year away from being amongst the favorites in Triple Crown races in their own right.
The fact that no one is even 20 to 1 in a 10-horse field tells us that bettors could have a field day with this one.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
It's hard to not really respect Commissioner in this race. He just missed winning the Belmont Stakes last year, losing out to Tonalist by a head, and this year, he has gotten off to a fantastic start. He won the Skip Away Stakes in impressive fashion, beating a field which included Encryption by running a 113 Beyer Speed Rating.
Commissioner also looks like he has the right jockey on his back with Javier Castellano. Castellano rode him in the Peter Pan Stakes last year as well as in the Belmont, and in his four starts aboard Commissioner, he has finished first, second twice and third.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
We're a little worried that Kid Cruz hasn't done much yet this year, but this being his third trip back to the track as a four-year old might be the charm.
Kid Cruz won the Federico Tesio Stakes last year on this track, and though he finished eighth in the Preakness Stakes, he at least has a history here on this track.
Remember that the jockey switch to Irad Ortiz has helped out this colt a lot as well. Kid Cruz won the Easy Goer Stakes and the Dwyer Stakes in the summer at Belmont Park, and he could be a factor here in this one.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
That said, this race is all about Commissioner. If he runs his best, there isn't a pony in the world that is going to run him down at this distance as we see it.
Albano, the runner up in the New Orleans Handicap in March could be a factor, as could Tapiture, who ran in the Kentucky derby last year. Kid Cruz can't be counted out because he has a ton of experience on this track as well.
Still, in the end, Commissioner is very likely to pull up a nice spot on the inside early on, even from his outside post, and he'll stalk his way into where he wants to be on the track. In the last couple furlongs, he'll make his move and win the Pimlico Special.
Play Commissioner to win the Pimlico Special at 9/2
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