A top-10 matchup takes place on Sunday when the No. 6 Villanova Wildcats visit No. 2 Baylor Bears. At 8-0 the Bears are a win away from taking over the top position in the national polls and some would argue they should be there now. The schedule hasn’t been overly demanding with a win over Michigan State for the Battle 4 Atlantis title the biggest notch in their belt. The defending national champs have won five games by at least 27 points and have outscored opponents by an average of 27.6 points while covering the closing spread five times.
This war on the floor will go down Sunday, December 12, 2021, at 3 p.m. ET at Ferrell Center in Waco, TX. The game will be televised live on ABC. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Sunday schedule.
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Odds Analysis
The Wildcats have won four in a row going 3-1 ATS since losing to top-ranked Purdue on Nov. 21. The two biggest games on the early season schedule have both resulted in losses for Jay Wright’s group. They fell to UCLA in overtime in their second game of the season and lost by six to the Boilermakers. They do have a big win over Tennessee and most recently knocked off Syracuse. Overall Nova is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS.
It looks like the defending champs could be better this season. That doesn’t guarantee a repeat, but the Bears have been dominant all season even with a target on their back. Their closest game was an 8-point win over VCU a few weeks ago and they plastered Arkansas-Pine Bluff 99-54 in their last outing. Baylor is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games and 4-1 ATS at home, where the Bears have won every game by at least 27 points with an average margin of nearly 35 points.
Villanova Wildcats
They aren’t Arkansas-Pine Bluff or Central Arkansas so don’t expect Baylor to have an easy time. Villanova has dispatched the teams it was supposed to beat. They’ve been unlucky against top competition, though. Their losses came at UCLA, 86-77, in overtime and to Purdue, 80-74, on a neutral court. The Bruins were ranked No. 2 at the time and Purdue climbed to No. 1. You could argue that the schedule favors Nova with games against heavyweight programs. In addition to the two losses the Cats have a win over then No. 17 Tennessee and toppled Syracuse, one of the top programs in the ACC. At least they’ll be ready to face one of the best in the game since they’ve done it several times already.
Dealing with non-COVID health issues forced the Wildcats to play shorthanded, but they are recovering and should be in good shape for Sunday’s showdown. And there’s added incentive against the team that beat Nova in the Sweet 16 of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Led by Collin Gillespie the Wildcats have been efficient offensively averaging 78.2 points while hitting nearly 40 percent of their threes. They will be hounded by an aggressive Baylor defense and can’t afford to go cold like they did in March. The Cats made just 3 of 17 triples and were 0 of 9 in the second half scoring a season-low in the 62-51 setback. Gillespie missed that game with a knee injury.
Baylor Bears
The Bears have a good argument to be No. 1 now that Purdue has a loss. They can reach the pinnacle in the next poll by beating Villanova. This will be the toughest test yet for the champs, but they’ve showed incredible depth and balance with their early season success. And many are saying this group is better than last season’s. It’s hard to argue with them. The Bears have five wins by 27 or more points and rank in the top-15 nationally in points scored and points allowed. Their average margin of victory is nearly 28 points.
Six players average more than 8.0 points per game with L.J. Cryer leading the way with 15.4. That gives you an idea of the balance since the Bears average 84 points. “There’s no great NBA team with one player. To win a championship you’ve got to have a team, you’ve got to have a bench,” Scott Drew said. Most thought it would a down year after losing four starters from the title team. Cryer and Matthew Mayer have stepped into larger roles and five-star recruit Kendall Brown is the real deal, just like the Baylor.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Baylor is equally good on both ends of the floor and their pressure defense will make for uneasy moments. Nova isn’t going to roll over and this game will be close, but with the Bears playing at home and with a ton of confidence I expect them to emerge with another victory.
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