The NCAA basketball tournament is like three weeks of Christmas for the betting community, and the Final Four is that last present under the tree that nobody saw. If you’re not already exhausted, the excitement for that last gift is palpable. Okay, maybe that’s an exaggeration, but BookMaker is giving bettors more than just game spreads and totals. Think Super Bowl and you know exactly what’s in store for Final Four weekend, just slightly toned down.
A plethora of props are waiting and the biggest is the Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player. With several top-seeds going down last week, taking a number of top players – I’m looking at you Zion Williamson – with them, the odds and the list had a massive shift. Cassius Winston sits at +250 on the prop odds board at BookMaker.eu as the favorite. That’s assuming his Michigan State Spartans win the hardware since the numbers are directly correlated to a team’s chances of winning the title.
NCAA Final Four Betting at BookMaker.eu
2019 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cassius Winston (Michigan State) +250
Kyle Guy (Virginia) +450
Ty Jerome (Virginia) +550
Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech) +650
DeAndre Hunter (Virginia) +850
Xavier Tillman (Michigan State) +1000
Bryce Brown (Auburn) +1200
Jared Harper (Auburn) +1200
Matt McQuaid (Michigan State) +2200
Kenny Goins (Michigan State) +2800
Nick Ward (Michigan State) +2800
Davide Moretti (Texas Tech) +3000
Mamadi Diakite (Virginia) +3000
Matt Mooney (Texas Tech) +3000
Anfernee McLemore (Auburn) +8000
Samir Doughty (Auburn) +8000
Tariq Owens (Texas Tech) +8000
The betting angle for the MOP is simple. Since no player from a losing team has won the award since 1983, the odds are good that the winner will come from the victorious squad. Go with the best player from the winning team and there’s a good chance you cash the winning ticket. Now, what team is going to win the championship? Ah, good question. And if you knew the answer there would be no reason to make this wager. But you don’t and neither do I, so we can only speculate.
Duke was the season-long favorite to win the National Championship with its star-studded class of five-star recruits. But Michigan State had other plans, knocking off the Dookies behind the stellar play of Winston, who notched a 20-point, 10-assist double-double. We’ve seen several other Spartans rise to the occasion during the Tournament. Kenny Goins hit some big shots, Matt McQuaid had some acrobatic highlight reel buckets and Xavier Tillman is inspired after his tongue-lashing from Tom Izzo a few games ago.
All these players are capable of breaking out at any point, which could hurt Winston’s chances. Keep in mind, though, that the point guard will play a lot of minutes and handle the basketball on every possession, increasing his chances of putting up big numbers. And of course voters need something tangible to base their decision on.
With college basketball royalty bounced from the Tournament last weekend, the Virginia Cavaliers are only No. 1 seed remaining and the slight favorite over MSU to win the title. That doesn’t mean they’re going to, but the Cavs used their memorable upset loss in the first round last season as motivation and they are close to achieving their goal. But they don’t have one player who you would call their best. If we could wager on their three-guard combo we’d be doing snow angels in the cash.
If you’re looking for a big payout I’ve got my eye on a couple of longshot picks, both of whom are at +3000 on the odds list. Texas Tech plays defense better than Virginia, according to several advanced metric websites. It doesn’t take an analytics guru to see that, just look at their numbers from the tournament. They shut down Buffalo and Gonzaga, two high-powered offenses, and limited Michigan to 44 points. The Red Raiders have a potential lottery pick in Jarrett Culver, but with opponents focusing on him, sharp-shooting Davide Moretti has a chance to steal the show.
Mamadi Diakite is a guy who helps Virginia’s defense be what it is. He rebounds and blocks shots while scoring around 13 points per game. Throw up some stifling games with a few boards and blocks mixed in with 15 points a game and the junior from Guinea should be on the watchlist.
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