Expected to a battle of the best of the NL at the beginning of the year, the Washington Nationals have been a major disappointment and will, instead, be trying to play spoilers on Sunday afternoon when they host the Chicago Cubs in a series finale in the Nation’s Capital. While Washington has faltered, Chicago holds the best record in the NL and look poised to make some noise in October. Erick Fedde and Mike Montgomery will get the start in this game as the two teams wrap up a four-game weekend series.
First pitch of the game between the Cubs and Nationals is scheduled for Sunday, September 9, 2018, at 1:35 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
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Odds Analysis
The Cubs took two of three from the Nationals when the two teams met at Wrigley last month. The Nationals managed a 9-4 win in the middle game, but lost a pair of one-run games to bookend the series. The superior bullpen in Chicago is part of the reason.
Chicago is still missing closer Brandon Morrow who remains on the DL, but overall the team has the second best bullpen ERA in the NL at 3.36. The Nationals are in the middle of the pack at 3.96 and falling. Washington’s pen is in shambles of late. Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera are still on the DL, Ryan Madson, Brandon Kinzler and Shawn Kelley were all dealt. Justin Miller, Koda Glover and Greg Holland have gotten the save chances recently.
Holland’s had a nice bounce back since joining the Nationals with one run allowed in 12 innings, but he’s hardly reliable given his stint in St. Louis. Glover was one of the failed closers last year.
On to the offense, the Cubs hold a distinct advantage here, too. They’ve scored the most runs in the NL and are extremely deep. The Nationals are still a top-5 offense in the NL, but they’re streakier than the Cubs, relying more on the home run.
Chicago has a .263 team average, second to the Red Sox in all of baseball. They can score in countless different ways. Joe Maddon has a million different lineup options, too, allowing him to mix and match. His former bench coach, Dave Martinez, is at the helm in Washington, but doesn’t have nearly the same number of options.
For Maddon, he’s got an MVP candidate in Javier Baez who has a .297 average, 30 dingers and 100 RBIs who can play anywhere on the infield. With Daniel Murphy in the fold, he can slide to shortstop, providing excellent defense there and vastly improve the offense over Addison Russell.
For the Nationals, they have some good names and can score some runs, but they’ve got a hole behind the plate with Pedro Severino and Matt Weieters both hitting well below league average. Wilmer Difo at second has a .680 OPS. Still, Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon—along with Ryan Zimmerman—form a strong enough infield while the outfield is still deep.
The Nationals have Bryce Harper with a .891 OPS and improved second half with Juan Soto and recently recalled Victor Robles. The talent there is remarkable. Meanwhile, Adam Eaton is a very good outfielder in his own right.
Probable Pitchers
The pitching matchup in this game isn’t exactly the best one either team could offer. There’s no Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jon Lester or Cole Hamels. Instead, the game will feature two pitchers not far removed from DL stints in Mike Montgomery and Erick Fedde.
Montgomery will be making his third start since coming off the DL. He lasted just four innings in his last start, giving up two runs. He was pulled early and may have another short leash on Sunday.
Splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen, Montgomery has been the main replacement for Yu Darvish. He’s 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 107.2 innings in 34 games and 15 starts. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher with just 72 and does give up the occasional walk, but most of the contact he allows is weak and on the ground. He’s only allowed seven homers this year and that’s a large part of why his FIP remains in line with his ERA at 3.86.
As a start, Montgomery has been very good. He’s pitching to a 3.43 ERA in 81.1 innings and has been stronger on the road than at home, too, pitching to a 3.43 ERA in 63 road innings.
Head-to-head against the Nationals, Montgomery has only ever faced them in relief, making just two appearances against them.
As for Fedde, he comes into this game with just 10 Major League starts under his belt. He got his first taste of big league action last year, pitching to a 9.39 ERA in 15.1 innings spread over three starts. The Cubs were one of the teams to knock him around last year, scoring four runs on eight hits and four walks in 5.1 innings.
This year, Fedde has had slightly better results in his seven starts, but hasn’t faced the Cubs. He’s 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in 33 innings. He’s given up six homers and 11 walks along with 41 hits, leading to a 1.576 WHIP.
In his last start, his first since coming off the DL, he pitched five innings and struck out seven against the Cardinals. While that’s a career high and encouraging, he did allow four runs thanks to a rough second inning. The Nationals ended up losing that game to St. Louis.
In the minors this year, the former top prospect has had mixed results. He had a good rehab outing in Double-A Harrisburg, but was 3-3 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 13 Triple-A starts. Just like in the majors, he’s been way too hittable.
Live Betting
Perhaps one of the more interesting storylines in this game—and series—will be the performance of Murphy and Kintzler.
The former Nationals were dealt to Chicago earlier this year in separate deals. The former was an August move and has already paid major dividends. He’s part of the extraordinarily deep offense for the Cubs. In 13 games, the second baseman is batting .316 with four home runs and seven RBIs, including a game winner.
The latter of the two, however, hasn’t had as much success. Kintzler was a July deadline deal, but has had issues in Chicago. He’s made 16 appearances and thrown 11.2 innings while allowing 11 runs on 21 hits and six walks.
While Murphy has only served to strengthen a deep lineup, Kintzler weakens what is still a good bullpen. While both have had different impacts so far, each will undoubtedly be motivated in this game against their former team.
MLB Pick
The Cubs are the better team and while Montgomery wasn’t good in his last start, look for him to be good enough on Sunday afternoon, getting into the sixth inning with the lead before turning the ball over to a still deep Chicago bullpen.
Washington comes up short offensively, in the bullpen, and in the rotation in his matchup. While Fedde has potential, the young hurler is in just his second start back form a two-month shoulder injury. Even if he’s throwing well, he won’t go deep in this game, leaving a suspect—and depleted bullpen—to record at least a few innings. Meanwhile, he’s yet to have a solid big league outing.
Look for the Cubs offense to score a few against Fedde and then add on against the bullpen, cruising to a comfortable win on Sunday afternoon as the Nationals continue to falter and disappoint.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Nationals 4
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