The Washington Nationals are slated to travel south to take on the Atlanta Braves this weekend for a three-game series, including the middle game on Saturday afternoon. Injuries, ineffectiveness and disappointment have plagued the Nationals’ season this year. Now, they can add a potential hurricane to the mix as Hurricane Florence threatens this game and this series. If the game is played, however, it should be a good one with the Braves’ newest starter slated to make the start for Atlanta.
First pitch of the game between the Nationals and Braves is scheduled for Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 1:05 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The matchup will be broadcast on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Braves have been a better road team than home team, but are still over .500 both at home and on the road. The Nationals, meanwhile, are a .500 team regardless of venue.
Head-to-head, the Braves have the advantage in the season series, winning nine of 16 games, but the Nationals have so far played Atlanta tough.
Offensively, over the course of the season, these two teams rate out very similarly in terms of power, average, and runs scored. The Braves, however, have done a better job scoring consistently while the Nationals have been far more hot and cold.
In Atlanta, the offense is focused around Freddie Freeman and rookie Ronald Acuna Jr. who both should be in the MVP conversation.
Acuna is hitting atop the order for the Braves and doing a fantastic job, hitting lead off homers at a historic pace while getting on base a .368 clip and producing a 151 OPS+. Freeman, Markakis, Johan Camargo and even Charlie Culberson each have an OPS of .820 or better while there are nine players with at least 10 homers on the team, too.
For the Nationals, Bryce Harper has had a good second half after a disappointing first half, but it’s gone a bit under the radar as Washington has fallen out of contention.
In addition to Harper, the Nationals have called up Victor Robles to add him to an already crowded outfield with Juan Soto—who is Acuna’s competition for Rookie of the Year—along with Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor. Acuna has out homered Soto, but the 19-year old National has a better average and OBP than Acuna.
Overall, perhaps the biggest difference between these two offenses is depth. The Braves don’t have a weak spot in the order while the Nationals have black hole at both catcher and second base.
Probable Pitchers
In need of an additional starter, the Braves made added Kevin Gausman in what has already turned out to be an excellent trade for Atlanta.
Gausman has made seven starts for the Braves, posting a 2.32 ERA and a 4-2 record in those seven games. He’s pitched exceptionally well despite a low strikeout rate, keeping the ball on the ground and using a strong defense behind him.
Despite the good production overall, the 27-year old right-hander is coming off a poor outing in his last start, his first disappointing start for the Braves where he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning, allowing four runs in the process. He took the loss in that game.
While the Diamondbacks got to him his last time out, prior to that, Gausman had gone five straight starts without allowing more than two earned runs. In fact, in those five starts, he’s tossed 33 innings, allowing just four earned runs.
The former Oriole is new to the NL, but has faced the Nationals five times in his career, all with Baltimore. In those five starts, he’s 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA. That includes a quality start back in June where he allowed just two runs on four hits against Washington over six innings of work.
On the other side of this matchup, the Nationals have yet to announce their rotation for this series. Jefry Rodriguez appears to be in line for the start if everything stays on track, but a rain out on Friday could push Max Schezer to Saturday and a number of other events could also throw the rotation off kilter for both teams.
If it is Rodriguez, the Braves have the clear edge in the rotation. In fact, Atlanta should feel comfortable with the rotation matchup regardless of who they send to the mound save for Scherzer.
As for Rodriguez, the rookie is 2-2 with a 5.89 ERA in 44.1 innings as he’s split time between the Majors and minors. He’s got a 5.86 FIP in his Major League time and has specifically struggled with the free passes. He’s walked 30 batters already, giving him a 6.1 walk per nine inning rate. With 35 total strikeouts, he’s got a 1.17 K:BB ratio. That needs to improve. His home run rate needs to improve, too, as he’s allowed seven homers already, giving him 1.4 per nine innings.
Live Betting
The two offenses and even, but the Braves get the edge when you consider the starting pitching unless Scherzer gets pushed back for the start. Atlanta’s pitching advantage then extends to the bullpen as well.
The Nationals do have Sean Doolittle and Greg Holland in the backend. While Holland was bad for the Cardinals this year, he’s been himself again since getting to the Nation’s Capital. With Washington, he’s thrown 16 innings in 18 games, allowing one runs on six hits. He has walked eight but has struck out 18.
Beyond those two big names in the backend, the Nationals no longer have several their set-up men, leaving the middle innings vulnerable. That’s an issue with a young hurler like Rodriguez on the mound.
Speaking of young hurlers, the expanded rosters here in September have afforded the Braves the opportunity to call up several young pitching prospects to help reinforce their pen.
Veterans like Brad Brach and Jonny Venters have pitched well since being acquired, but the team still misses Arodys Vizcaino and A.J. Minter has shown some chinks in the armor.
Atlanta now has some good young arms like Touki Toussaint, Kolby Alard, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Max Fried in the pen to provide reinforcements.
MLB Pick
The Braves have the better, more consistent offense, a superior starting pitcher and a deeper bullpen going into this game. Given that they’re also playing at home where they should come away with an easy victory.
Look for Atlanta to get on the board early against Rodriguez. Acuna’s been a beast in the leadoff spot and he alongside Freeman should help lead to a first inning rally. From there, the Braves should cruise to a victory.
Count on the Braves to knock Rodriguez out of the game early and then add on against a Nationals’ bullpen that’s got plenty of question marks, particularly in the middle innings.
On the other side, look for a bounce back game from Gausman who’s been as good as you could expect early on for the Braves. He should give Atlanta a quality start before turning the rock over to the bullpen to hold the lead.
MLB Odds: Braves 7, Nationals 3
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