In a potential postseason preview, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the NL East leading Atlanta Braves in the first of four on Thursday night. Atlanta’s in a firmer position for October than the Diamondbacks as Arizona is currently third in a three-team race for the NL West. With so much for both teams to play for, this should be an interesting series kickoff as a couple grizzled veterans are lined up to take the mound.
First pitch of the game between the Braves and Diamondbacks is scheduled for Thursday, September 6, 2018, at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field. The matchup will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
Atlanta’s in a better position than the D-Backs as we get the finally month of the season rolling, leading the NL East by a few games while Arizona’s neck-and-neck with a couple other teams in the race for the NL West.
The Braves, however, only have a couple more wins than the Diamondbacks as these two teams seem quite evenly matched. The D-Backs beat Atlanta two games to one when they met in Atlanta. Now they’re playing in Arizona where the D-Backs have actually been worse than they have on the road. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s been a better road team, too.
In their last series, the two teams combined for just 12 runs in three games, three lower scoring affairs. That doesn’t seem as likely in this coming four game series. After all, Atlanta is ranked second in the NL in runs scored.
As a whole, the Braves have the clear offensive advantage. They’ve hit .260 as a team compared to .237 for Arizona.
Braves are a young, but talented offense. The age and experience lead to questions of sustainability in the final month, but so far, so good.
Atlanta has two players under 21 with 3 rWAR in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. In just 86 games, Acuna is batting .292 with a .925 OPS and 23 home runs. He’s been especially great in the second half. Albies, meanwhile, has a .275 average and .781 OPS with 22 dingers. Those two are the top two home run hitters in Atlanta.
Along with those youngsters, Freddie Freeman is the heart of the offense with a .890 OPS and a .306 average and .388 OBP. He’s only in his age 28 season while Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo and even Chrlie Culberson have all delivered impressive campaigns.
Atlanta’s recently added to its offensive depth with the addition of Lucas Duda, Lane Adams and Adam Duvall, although the latter has struggled mightily since being acquired from the Reds. Speaking of the Reds, Preston Tucker is now back from a brief tour in Cincinnati.
While Atlanta is second in runs and Arizona is ninth, the biggest difference in the two teams is average and consistency.
Since the All-Star break, Atlanta’s outscored Arizona by only 11 runs in two more games as Arizona is batting .255.
David Peralta has been red-hot since the break, hitting .329/.377/.601 with 10 homers and 21 RBIs. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt is batting .327/.422/.579 with 10 homers of his own and 25 driven in.
Those two have formed a fearsome twosome and helped take the Arizona offense up a notch. Meanwhile, the acquisition of Eduardo Escobar and a healthy Steven Souza Jr. have added depth.
Atlanta has the better offense overall, but of late the gap has been narrowed.
Probable Pitchers
The pitching matchup for this game has yet to be announced and with expanded rosters in September, there’s a chance either team could push guys back a day or two, but for now it looks to be a battle between two guys in their aged 34 season with Anibal Sanchez on the bump for the Braves opposite Zack Greinke.
Statistically, the two veterans have put up similar numbers, at least in terms of ERA and WHIP. Sanchez is 6-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.086 WHIP while Greinke is 13-9 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.045 WHIP. While Greinke has the slight edge in both areas, he’s thrown quite a few more innings.
The Arizona ace and All-Star has 176 innings of work where he’s allowed 25 home runs and pitched to a 3.68 FIP with 176 strikeouts and just 35 walks. In just eight fewer appearances, Sanchez has nearly 70 fewer innings, tossing 108.2 frames, he’s allowed nearly as many walks and has a similar strikeout rate though his home runs rate is a bit lower with just 13 bombs allowed. With a 3.75 FIP, he’s seemingly been throwing nearly as well as the All-Star.
Of course, the stats for Sanchez this year are a much bigger surprise than they are for Greinke. Before this year, the former hasn’t been a competent starter since 2014 leaving questions about how long his success can last even as the sample size grows.
Overall, the Braves are just 10-10 when he takes the mound and have lose his last three games and five of his last seven outings. Despite that, he’s actually thrown reasonably well lately and is coming off a one earned-run, 5.1 inning performance against the Pirates with a one run, 5.2 inning start against Miami immediately prior to that. He went six innings, allowing one run against the D-Backs back in July.
On the other side of the matchup, Greinke offers a considerably higher rWAR at 4.7 driven primarily on the extra innings thrown.
He, too, pitched well in his only start this year against the Braves, going 7.2 scoreless innings allowing only four hits and no walks.
Over the last six games, however, Greinke is just 1-4 and the D-Backs are a mere 2-4. They’re 16-12 in his starts overall.
Despite the poor record or late, Greinke has delivered a quality start in five of those last six games, including giving up just three in 7.1 innings against the Dodgers his last time out.
Live Betting
The bullpen has been one of Arizona’s biggest assets this season. The Arizona pen ranks first in the NL in ERA and is really deep with guys like Brad Boxberger, Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano, Andrew Chafin, T.J, McFarland, Brad Ziegler, and Jake Diekman forming a seemingly never ending list of options for Torey Lovullo.
While the names are good and the overall numbers impressive, the Arizona bullpen has had a few struggles of late. Since his acquisition, Ziegler, for one, hasn’t been as dominant as he was the last couple months in Miami. He’s allowed six runs in 10.2 innings. Diekman, on the other hand, has done his job well, but he’s been just a LOOGY. That said, in 7.2 innings, he’s struck out 15 batters.
Overall, since the break, the pen has converted just seven of 15 save opportunities. That’s a bad ratio as both Boxberger and Bradley has slumped.
Meanwhile, Atlanta’s bullpen doesn’t have the depth or overall numbers, but has been pitching well since the additions of Brad Brach and Jonny Venters added some veteran options. The two have pitched 27.1 combined with two earned runs.
A.J. Minter and Jesse Biddle have pitched well, too, but with Sanchez only likely to go five or a little more, there are still a lot of outs that the pen will be asked to get.
MLB Pick
The Braves’ bullpen is surprisingly strong after their under-the-radar acquisitions, but they unit will be asked to pitch four innings after Sanchez tossed the first five.
Look for Sanchez to pitch well enough to win in most cases, but count on the Braves to come up just a bit short in this road series opener. In the end, Greinke gives the D-Backs the edge over Sanchez and the Braves.
Sanchez has had a good year and he does have a good pen behind him, but the Arizona bullpen is deeper—at least by name—and won’t be asked to throw as much as Greinke will go deeper in the game and has a much more stable track record than Sanchez.
Meanwhile, on offense, both have enough thunder to put at least a few runs on the board. The youth of the Atlanta lineup is impressive, but right now, it’s hard to top the tandem of Peralta and Goldschmidt in Arizona.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 5, Braves 4
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