The "Battle of Ohio" rages on this coming Saturday at the Great American Ball Park, where the Cleveland Indians (42-46 SU, -14.04 Units) will look to take one step back into the playoff race when they battle the Cincinnati Reds (39-47 SU, -9.78 Units).
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Tribe won the first three games of the year played against Cincinnati, including a game with this very same pitching matchup. They were -175, -235 and -180 favorites in those games though, so perhaps it should have been expected out of them to win that series.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Anthony DeSclafani really pitched well back in May when these two teams met, but he was just bettered by Corey Kluber that day.
One look at the raw stats of these pitchers shows two guys who are awfully similar. DeSclafani is 5-6 with a 3.65 ERA. Kluber is 4-10 with a 3.38 ERA.
A second look though, shows two pitchers who are nothing like each other. Kluber is a strikeout master, and it is rare that he is hung with a poor start.
DeSclafani, who was scratched from his last start due to a glute problem, doesn't even have a 2/1 K/BB ratio this season (74/41), and has been significantly worse off since an awesome start to the season in April.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"It's not him that's the problem. He's doing his job. He's competing every fifth day. He needs more run support." – Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis on Kluber
SITUATIONAL BETTING
What else really isn't helping Kluber is his bullpen. This unit has allowed 24 runs this year when he’s taken the mound. The Indians don't have that bad of a bullpen, but when you've got luck this bad, you're going to end up having a losing record.
PROP TALK
We're always a little worried about men who win the Home Run Derby coming back to the "real world." Todd Frazier has slugged 25 homers this year, and he won the Home Run Derby, but that doesn't mean that he is a given for prop betting purposes in this one.
The third baseman only has two extra base hits in his last eight games, and is batting .222 in that stretch. Stay away from Frazier or fade him in this one, especially going against Kluber's live arm.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
To their credit, the oddsmakers haven't adjusted all that much in terms of Kluber's value even though he is easily the worst money pitcher in the game, costing bettors’ 14.21 units thus far on the season (the next closest is Clayton Kershaw at -8.99 units).
There's a reason for that, though. Kluber is an excellent pitcher, and if he turned some of the losses into wins with the help of his bullpen and his bats, he'd be in the running for the Cy Young Award right now.
We're certainly not worried about Kluber in this game, but DeSclafani is worrisome. He and the Reds have had their day in the sun with the All-Star Game, but reality is going to set in soon with moves being made to signal the end of the season and building for the future.
We just think that Cincy is going to get off to a rocky start to the second half, including losing this game on Saturday.
Cleveland 4, Cincinnati 2
The MLB lines for this Saturday contest will be first released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker's live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Cleveland Indians versus the Cincinnati Reds will commence at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 18, 2015 at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH. The matchup will be televised live on FOX Sports 1.
