Light heavyweight veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (22-8, 7 KOs, 6 SUBs) meets “Smile’n” Sam Alvey at UFC Fight Night 137 on Saturday, September 22, 2018 at the Geraldo Jose de Almeida Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10:30 pm ET.
The less famous Nogueira brother keeps chugging on, even after his legendary twin brother hung up the gloves years ago. Now that he’s 42, you’ve got to wonder how much Antonio “Minotouro” Nogueira has left, especially since he’s mired in a 1-3 slide where he was brutally knocked out twice.
Part of that is the competition he’s been facing - Rumble Johnson and Ryan Bader were top-7 guys when Lil ‘Nog stepped into the cage with them. Shogun Rua was going through a career resurgence. A surprising TKO win over Patrick Cummins staved off the retirement calls for a quick minute, but a failed drug test put the Brazilian out of action in 2016.
This Saturday, Nogueira makes his return against Smile’n Sam Alvey, a counterpuncher who has won both his matches since moving up to light heavyweight. A solid, unspectacular fighter, Alvey is a good litmus test to see how much Nogueira has left.
So does the Brazilian recapture the magic in his home country, or does Alvey steal his thunder? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your betting options. You’ll also want to keep an eye on the in-game UFC betting at BookMaker.eu, as you can hedge any bets you make now.
UFC Fight Night 137 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Antonio Nogueira +235
Sam Alvey -305
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +175 / -245
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Nogueira 2.35 / Alvey 3.1
Accuracy: Nogueira 34.46% / Alvey 45.85%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Nogueira 2.17 / Alvey 3.21
Defense: Nogueira 60.77% / Alvey 55.51%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Nogueira 0.69 / Alvey 0.1
Takedown accuracy: Nogueira 44.83% / Alvey 25%
Takedowns defended: Nogueira 63.11% / Alvey 84.09%
Submission average: Nogueira 0.85 / Alvey 0.1
Bet on Nogueira vs. Alvey Odds
At Nogueira’s age, a mandated hiatus probably helps him out. That’s time off to rest and recover a body that’s been through a ton of wars. Especially since he was massacred by Rumble and eaten alive by Bader in his last two losses. This is not somebody who can handle strong, athletic light heavyweights anymore - Nogueira looks and fight even older than he already is.
But it’s not like he’s completely helpless either. Lil ‘Nog has always been thought of as a better boxer ocer his brother. The southpaw has a sharp jab and a left that lands with speed and power. His TKO of the generally sturdy Patrick Cummins at UFC 198 shows that he can still put dudes away. However, when it comes to his jiu-jitsu, Minotouro isn’t even in the same league as his brother.
The grappling really shouldn’t come into play anyway against Alvey. The Team Quest rep very much prefers to strike, and rarely goes for takedowns. On the feet, Alvey is all counters, which can be frustrating to watch since he never takes the lead. Given Nogueira’s low striking rate, there could definitely be some slow moments in this fight where both men are waiting for the other to go first.
We also need to bring up the fact that Alvey is 10 years younger than Nogueira. He’s not the type of explosive athlete that gives the Brazilian trouble, but he is definitely the more spry of the two. In 43 fights, Alvey has only been knocked out once and that was in 2015.
UFC Odds Pick: Alvey to win at -305
Even in his prime, Nogueira might have struggled against Alvey. But in his current state we have to fade him even more. Though the PEDs suspension might have given his body time to heal, Nogueira has taken too much punishment in his recent fights to believe that he can aggressively impose his will. Alvey should take the win, and it’ll likely be a decision win. Six of Alvey’s last seven fights have gone to the cards, and it’s been years since he’s been a knockout puncher.
We also recommend playing that the fight goes to decision at +175. This is a three-rounder, and neither is a one-hitter quitter. We love the payout here, though Nogueira’s durability is a serious question.
UFC Fight Night 137 Odds
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 137 takes place on Saturday, September 22, 2018 at the Geraldo Jose de Almeida Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
