If we learned anything from the Kentucky Derby it’s that the race is never over till it’s over. And even then it might not be over. And we also learned that the underdogs are alive and well. Handicappers are almost always spot on, they better be since that’s their job and it could get costly if they aren’t. But every now and then one gets by them. And we saw that with Country House at the Derby.
With that outcome still fresh in the minds of every horse racing fan, is it possible we see another upset winner Saturday at the Preakness Stakes? I suppose anything is possible and the longest of shots on the current odds list is Everfast at +7500. A late entry to increase the field to 13, he’s had a run of tough luck after winning his maiden and I wouldn’t waste my money on him. There are other longshots that actually have a chance of winning and we’ll examine a few of them.
2019 Preakness Stakes
Date and Time: Saturday, May 18, 2019, 6:48 p.m. ET
Location: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, MD
Length: 1 3/16 mile, dirt track
Preakness Stakes TV Coverage: NBC
Technically, any horse that isn’t the favorite is a longshot. That means War Of Will, who is right behind Improbable on the odds board at at +400 could be mentioned in this article. But I’m not going to do that because we want an upset special, one that pays a 65/1 longshot like Country House at the Kentucky Derby.
To put that into perspective, a $100 wager would have paid out $6,500. The only problem is you never know when those payday opportunities are going to take place. Here are the current odds for the Preakness Stakes with the longshots listed in descending order.
Odds to win 2019 Preakness Stakes
Everfast +7500
Market King +3300
Laughing Fox +2500
Signalman +2500
Bodexpress +2000
Win Win Win +1600
Warrior's Charge +1400
Owendale +1100
Bourbon War +850
Alwaysmining +800
Anothertwistafate +725
War Of Will +400
Improbable +235
What makes the Preakness so intriguing is that there is no clear-cut favorite. Sure, Improbable is the betting favorite, but there had to be a horse at the top of the list. Or in this case the bottom of the list. Improbable and War Of Will, the two favorites, are there because they have run a number of graded stakes races and have been successful. War Of Will is just one of two in the field to have graded stakes win as a three-year-old.
That doesn’t make them better than the rest of the field it only makes them slightly more experienced in big time races. Improbable closed as the favorite at the Kentucky Derby with odds of +300 and we saw how that turned out for him.
Looking solely at his record, most would stay away from Bodexpress at +2000. But that’s exactly why he’s a prime candidate to pull off the upset. Again, the field is begging for a longshot to come out victorious. Only four horses – Improbable, War Of Will, Bodexpress, Win Win Win – are in the field after running at Churchill Downs and Bodexpress’s 13th place finish didn’t inspire a lot of confidence.
However, just like any athlete, horses have off days too, and the Derby was one for Bodexpress. He’s not close to his peers in terms of racing status, heck he doesn’t even have a victory. He does, however, have strong bloodlines and a second place finish at the G1 Florida Derby. He also has a winning jockey in John Velazquez at the mount. And besides, this is what a longshot is all about.
There’s plenty of buzz over Owendale, who comes off at a price of +1100 on the current odds. The colt took a huge leap in status winning the Lexington Stakes by nearly two lengths for his first graded stakes win with a show of closing speed. He’s had trouble in races with a large field and the number for this one is in his comfort zone.
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