The Preakness Stakes is set for Saturday with Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit listed as the 9-5 morning-line favorite. The horse failed a post-race test after the Derby, but horse racing officials have allowed Medina Spirit to race in Saturday’s Preakness. This year’s Preakness looks to have one of the weakest fields in recent memory, so Medina Spirit definitely has a chance to win as the betting favorite. The 2021 Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course with a post time of 6:50 p.m. Eastern on NBC. Let’s look at Preakness Stakes odds and Preakness Stakes longshots.
2021 Preakness Stakes Betting Odds
Post, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning-line Odds
1. Ram, D. Wayne Lukas, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
2. Keepmeinmind, Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen, 15-1
3. Medina Spirit, Bob Baffert, John Velázquez, 9-5
4. Crowded Trade, Chad Brown, Javier Castellano, 7-1
5. Midnight Bourbon, Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz Jr., 5-1
6. Rombauer, Mike McCarthy, Flavien Prat, 12-1
7. France Go de Ina, Hideyuki Mori, Joel Rosario, 20-1
8. Unbridled Honor, Todd Pletcher, Luis Sáez, 15-1
9. Risk Taking, Chad Brown, José Ortiz, 15-1
10. Concert Tour, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 5-2
Preakness Stakes Longshots
The first thing to remember about the Preakness is that it is not a good race for betting longshots. I want to put that out there first and foremost. If you are going to bet a longshot then it has to be a horse with odds of less than 15-1. Forget about taking horses with odds higher than 15-1. The race has been run 145 times and only 4 horses have won at odds higher than 15-1.
We will be looking at horses in the range between 10-1 and 15-1. In the last 15 years there have been four horses who have won at odds between 12-1 and 15-1 and those were Bernardini in 2006, Shackelford in 2011, Oxbow in 2013 and Cloud Computing in 2017.
It is important for a horse winning the Preakness to have tactical speed because horses just don’t come from the clouds to win this race. Four of the last 12 winners won wire to wire and six others were within 3.5 lengths after a half mile. Only one horse in the last 12 years has rallied from the back half of the field to win the Preakness and that horse was Exaggerator who loved the mud and benefited from a sloppy track. Since we are looking simply at longshots, and only those with a realistic chance of winning, we have just four horses to consider.
Rombauer could go off at single-digit odds and if that happens then so be it, but he is 12-1 on the morning line. The horse has shown he can run with the big boys, as he was right with Essential Quality and Motivated in the Blue Grass. I also like that he gets jockey Flavien Prat for this race.
Risk Taking was the favorite in the Wood Memorial but he did not have a good race and was never a factor. He could be a prime candidate to bounce back, but he has the history against him since he didn’t race in the Derby.
I am not excited about Unbridled Honor. I think Todd Pletcher is overrated as a trainer in these big races and this horse has just one win in five starts.
A horse that could be getting overlooked and is one of the three horses in this race coming out of the Derby is Keepmeinmind. The horse finished seventh in the Derby, but he has raced against Essential Quality in the past and showed up well.
“He looked very strong. He’s been like that the last two days,” said trainer Robertino Diodoro to the media, “They were sending me some videos. It seems like he’s full of himself, that’s for sure. I’m very happy with him. One thing I keep saying about him running back so quick, his running style – if there’s such a thing that suits that – he only runs the last three-eighths of a mile, where some of these other horses are battling up there in front and close to the pace. They run a lot harder race. This guy runs three-eighths of a mile. He’s definitely bounced back very well.”
Preakness Stakes Longshot Picks
I think there is a lot of value in Keepmeinmind in the Preakness at odds of 15-1. His trainer sure seems to think his horse will bounce back well. “People might think I’m nuts when we’re 40-, 50-1.” Diodoro said to the media, “But I’m feeling very confident with this horse. Hate to keep using the word excuse, but he’s had lots of excuses.”
I’ll take Keepmeinmind to win, place and show in Saturday’s Preakness.
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