The Stanford Cardinal have almost quietly had one of the best women's basketball programs in the country year after year. They've been in the Final Four six times since 2008, but they've yet to win a National Championship since 1992. Will this be the year their fortunes change? They've got a really tough task ahead in Dallas against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the ladies' Final Four.
This war on the floor will go down Friday, March 31, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Arena. The game will be televised live on ESPN.
Women's NCAA Tournament Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Carolina Gamecocks -2
Stanford Cardinal +2
Over/Under Total 134.5
Odds Analysis
South Carolina, the top seed from its region, has had its share of challenges against the single-digit seeds it has had to face thus far in the dance, beating Arizona State by just three and Florida State by seven. The Lady Gamecocks though, are 31-4, and all but one of their losses came on the road, including getting beaten by UConn in Storrs by a very modest 11 points.
Stanford, a 32-5 team, is coming off of one of the big upsets of this tournament when it took care of what was largely regarded as the second best team in the land, Notre Dame 76-75.
Not surprisingly, this is an awfully tight point spread with the Gamecocks laying a bucket against a total of 134.5.
Dominating the Paint
The Gamecocks generally use a four-guard lineup, but it's clear that the woman to watch is their center, A'ja Wilson. She stands tall at 6-foot-5, and even the best teams in America tend to have a tougher time lining up against her. She averages 17.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, and though she has had a tough tourney at times, Wilson has played fantastic defense, including blocking four shots against a good Florida State team in the Elite Eight.
When Wilson has been out of the lineup though, there have been problems. The Gamecocks don't have enough height on their bench to make up for one of their stud players being out of the fold. Sure, they can shoot their way to victories on most nights, but they made plenty of mistakes against FSU and had to live to tell about it by getting to the rack and almost forcing in their shots.
Comeback Kids
Stanford was outscored by 16 points in the second quarter against Notre Dame and went on a furious rally from there to come back and win 76-75 against one of the best teams in America. The formula though, is quite simple. The Cardinal have to hit their threes.
Stanford only averages a shade over six triples per game, but it knocked down a dozen of them on Monday against the Lady Irish.
The Cardinal have trailed going into the break by at least seven points four times in their last five games. By now, it's old hat, but at some point, this team isn't going to be able to rely upon a three from Brittany McPhee or Karlie Samuelson to spark a rally.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
We just wonder if Stanford has run out its luck. The Cardinal are good for sure. Erica McCall is an elite scorer in the nation, and Samuelson, the sister of UConn standout, Katie Lou Samuelson, has had a fantastic tournament as the leader of this team. That said, this isn't a great matchup. South Carolina can really dominate at times in the paint, and this has been a big concern throughout this tournament for Stanford.
The Cardinal have managed to hang in there against bigger, more athletic teams like Notre Dame and Texas, but trying to outdo South Carolina at its own game in the paint is a tall task. We'll lay the two points.
College Basketball Odds: South Carolina 69, Stanford 62
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