The Mississippi State Bulldogs know they're headed to Dallas to play a supporting role in the main play known as the romp for the Connecticut Huskies towards what should be a fifth straight National Championship. That said, they're daring to dream greatly right now, and they shouldn't be considered complete and utter pushovers, even against the greatest dynasty in all of sports at the moment.
This war on the floor will go down Friday, March 31, 2017, at 9:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Arena. The game will be televised live on ESPN.
Women's NCAA Tournament Odds at BookMaker.eu
Connecticut Huskies -21.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs +21.5
Over/Under Total 148
Odds Analysis
This UConn women's team might be the toughest in the land to try to handicap. The Lady Huskies have won their first four games of the dance by a combined 144 points, and none were closer than 15. That's why the spread in this Final Four game of -21.5 just seems laughable. You just know that the Lady Huskies can cover this spread if they really want to, and they could probably have it covered by halftime as well. Heck, in the game against UCLA, the one that ended 86-71, Connecticut was up by 17 at the break and actually was outscored by two in the second half.
Nursing Her Shot
Kia Nurse isn't considered the stud of all studs on this UConn roster. She's not the face of the team like Katie Lou Samuelson, and she doesn't have nearly the gaudy stats of Napheesa Collier. But here in the NCAA Tournament, she's been ridiculously good with her long range shot. Nurse knocked down nine threes against Syracuse in the second round and now has 20 triples made in the four games in the postseason – on just 26 attempts!
The Huskies have shot at least 45 percent from beyond the arc in three of their four NCAA Tournament games to date, though it should be noted that the last effort against Oregon in the Elite Eight was the one that was the "dud" at just 7-of-19. UConn still scored 90 points thanks to the fact that it shot 61.7 percent from inside the arc.
Recipe For An Upset
It's clear that the Lady Bulldogs know they need to play a perfect game in this one, but they knew that against Baylor as well and pulled off the trick. Heck, even against Washington in the Sweet 16, MSU was behind the 8-ball early and had to pull a rabbit out of its hat just to reach the Elite Eight in Oklahoma City.
The key though, is going to be on the defensive side of the ball. Mississippi State has already had to face off with Kelsey Plum, the top scorer in the nation, and the key that it used was shadowing her with the biggest player on the court, Teaira McCowan while also sticking Dominique Dillingham, one of the SEC's best defensive players, on her man-to-man.
It's going to take stopping a whole team instead of just one woman this time around, but this is a team that is known for its defense, and that alone could keep this game relatively close for a while.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
The last time these two teams met came in the Sweet 16 last year. The Lady Huskies won by 60, and they were up 84-20 at the end of the third quarter. It was the biggest win in the history of the women's NCAA Tournament in the Sweet 16 or beyond.
The Bulldogs have used that as motivation this season. They bring back essentially the same team that was romped in Bridgeport a campaign ago, and they should have a lot more confidence this time around. You can bet they won't shoot 28.6 percent from the field again, nor will they go 0-for-14 from the foul line.
But again, it's the defense that we think makes all the difference. We know that Morgan William and Victoria Vivians are going to get their points, even against a great UConn lineup with Samuelson, Collier and other studs who are sure to be top picks in the WNBA Draft soon. That's why we're going to take the three TDs in hopes that the Bulldogs can keep this one close throughout.
College Basketball Odds: Connecticut 84, Mississippi State 69
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