Sunday Opening Line Report - NCAA Tournament Picks

By  Jonathan Willis

Sunday, March 24th, 2019

Saturday was an incredible day for chalk. There weren’t many upsets in the first round games that took place on Thursday, and there were even fewer when those teams played again on Saturday. Although teams like LSU and Kentucky had some close calls, the favorites overwhelmingly prevailed with seven of the eight lower-seeded teams in advancing. The only exception was Auburn in their big win over Kansas, and the Tigers were actually favored over the Jayhawks. Let’s see if there are some upsets on Sunday.

2018-19 March Madness Bracket Contest

Tennessee Volunteers vs Iowa Hawkeyes (TENN -7.5, O/U 155)

There has been some action on the Hawkeyes since this line opened. Tennessee was originally an 8.5-point favorite, but the Volunteers are now down to a 7.5-point favorite. The total has shifted down by two points too. Big Ten teams were dominant in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and Iowa does have a size advantage on Tennessee.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Washington Huskies (UNC -11.5, O/U 148.5)

The PAC 12 has proved they weren’t as bad as they were made out to be with all three of their representatives winning at least one NCAA Tournament game. However, sharps aren’t a believer in Washington at all here. Even though UNC is the weakest No. 1 seed, this line has moved from UNC by 10.5 to 11.5. The total has shifted down a half-point since it opened.

Duke Blue Devils vs. UCF Knights (DUKE -13.5, O/U 143.5)

Everyone will be watching this game, as Zion Williamson looks to topple the tallest man in college basketball in Tacko Fall. BookMaker is even offering a prop on whether or not Williamson will successfully dunk on Fall, and that’s the first time I can remember seeing that. Duke is the biggest favorite of the day, and the line has moved from 13 to 13.5.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Buffalo Bulls (TT -4.5, O/U 146.5)

When the lines were initially set for the Second Round games, most observers circled this as the upset de jour. However, the sharps have not agreed. Texas Tech was originally a three-point favorite, but the Red Raiders are up to a 4.5-point favorite, and that line could keep moving. The total has made a significant move from 144.5 to 146.5 as well.

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Liberty Flames (VT -8.5, O/U 124.5)

Liberty showed that the 12-5 upset is still a real thing, and the Flames hung with Mississippi State before pulling away late. However, they are a pretty sizable underdog coming into their tilt with Virginia Tech. The Hokies opened as a nine-point favorite, but the line has since dropped a half-point. The total has dropped from 126 to 124.5.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Oklahoma Sooners (UVA -11, O/U 126)

The Cavaliers had to have been thinking not again after a serious case of déjà vu against Gardner-Webb. Virginia was down by as many as 14, but the ‘Hoos rallied and pulled away in the second half. They are still big favorites today despite their struggles in the first round, but the line has gone down slightly from UVA -11.5 to -11, and the total has moved down a half-point.

Houston Cougars vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (HOU -6, O/U 132.5)

The Cougars might be the real deal. Houston is 3-0 against power conference teams this season, and its wins over Oregon and LSU are looking even better than they previously did. It’s typical for people to like power conference teams in this situation, but instead Houston has moved from -5.5 to -6. The total has gone up a point from 131.5.

Oregon Ducks vs. UC Irvine Anteaters (ORE -5, O/U 124)

These two teams both pulled off slight upsets in the first round, and they have ensured there will be a double-digit seed playing on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. There hasn’t been much movement on the side here, but a lot of money has come in on the total to move it up 1.5 points from open.

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