Two of the Final Four teams have been determined. Both of Saturday’s games were fantastic as Texas Tech outlasted Gonzaga in a defensive slugfest in order to make it to the Final Four for the first time in school history. The Red Raiders are now waiting for the winner of Duke and Michigan State with a spot in the National Championship Game on the line, and they know they are likely to be underdogs in that one.
Saturday’s other game was one of the best Elite Eight games in recent memory. Purdue came back after trailing for nearly all of the second half to take the lead late, but Mamadi Diakite hit a bucket as the clock struck zero to send Virginia to overtime. The Cavaliers prevailed to make the Final Four for the first time under Tony Bennett and even covered after a pair of free throws with less than two seconds left. Carsen Edwards was unconscious from the floor in the loss, hitting 10 of 19 threes and scoring 42 of Purdue’s 75 points.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers (KENT -4.5, O/U 140.5)
Chants of S! E! C! will be ringing loud and clear throughout the Sprint Center in Kansas City throughout this game as rivals from the predominantly football conference meet for a spot in the Final Four.
The line in this game has already seen a lot of movement. Oddsmakers were a lot more bullish about Auburn after the Tigers upset North Carolina than sharps were, as Auburn was eventually just a 2.5-point underdog initially. That line has gone up two points even as the total has dropped from 144.5 to 140.5.
These teams met twice in the regular season with Kentucky winning both games. In mid-January, the Wildcats went on the road and beat the Tigers thanks to great efforts from Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson, and despite Bryce Brown hitting six of seven threes. A month ago at Rupp Arena it was all Kentucky. The Wildcats went 30 of 55 from the floor in an 80-53 beatdown of the Tigers.
Auburn’s dream run to the Elite Eight almost didn’t happen. The Tigers were up 13 on New Mexico State with seven minutes left in the second half, but they had to hold on to win by one. They have been much more impressive in their last two wins over two of college basketball’s blue bloods. They beat Kansas 89-75 in the second round thanks to a great effort from Brown, and Auburn hit 17 threes against North Carolina two nights ago.
Kentucky has not been shooting near as well. The Wildcats easily covered against Abilene Christian in the first round, but they had to hang on to beat Wofford and come back late to beat Houston after subpar shooting performances.
Chuma Okeke tore his ACL in the win over North Carolina and won’t be available for Auburn, while PJ Washington is probable for Kentucky.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan State Spartans (DUKE -2, O/U 151.5)
The shine is off of Duke. It’s become apparent that while the Blue Devils have two of the most talented players in the country in Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, they aren’t a great basketball team. UCF figured that out by daring anyone other than Williamson, Barrett, and Cam Reddish to shoot, and both the Knights and Virginia Tech nearly upset Duke.
That’s why the line movement has gone in favor of Michigan State here. Duke opened as a three-point favorite and the line dropped to 1.5 before moving back up to two. The total has shifted downwards from 153.5 to 151.5.
Duke has yet to cover a game in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils were massive favorites against North Dakota State in the first round and couldn’t cover the big spread and nearly lost outright as a sizable favorite against UCF and Virginia Tech. Those latter two games went over the total.
Meanwhile, Michigan State has been one of the more impressive teams in the tournament. The Spartans are all the way up to third in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, and they are proving that they should have been a No. 1 seed. They have beaten all three of their NCAA Tournament foes by double-digits, and they hammered Minnesota and LSU by 20 and 17 in easy covers.
The Spartans won’t have Kyle Ahrens or Joshua Langford, but Nick Ward is probable to play. Duke’s Cam Reddish and Jack White are both questionable.
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