2018 March Madness - No.4 vs No.13 Seed Betting Picks

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#4 vs #13 Seed March Madness Betting OddsNCAA men's basketball tournament Betting Online: Everyone knows just how dangerous the #12 seeds are against #5 seeds, but sometimes the #4 seeds are in just as much trouble as their #5 brethren. The #13s are typically teams who were the best of the teams to get into the field by winning their conference tournaments, and that makes them some of the most dangerous teams of them all, particularly in that first weekend of play in the dance.

The first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament will be played at eight different venues across the country. The 64 teams in the field will play on Thursday, March 15, 2018 and Friday, March 16, 2018. Games will tip off starting at just after noon and will run through the entire day. All of the action will be shown on CBS, TNT, TBS and truTV.

History of #4 Seeds vs. #13 Seeds in NCAA Tournament Winning team in bold; ATS records date back to 1996; Total records date back to 1998

Year #4 Seed Score #13 Seed Score Spread Cover Total O/U
2017 Florida 80 E. Tennessee St. 65 -10 4 148 U
2017 West Virginia 86 Bucknell 80 -13 13 148.5 O
2017 Purdue 80 Vermont 70 -8.5 4 134.5 O
2017 Butler 76 Winthrop 64 -11 4 145.5 U
2016 California 66 Hawaii 77 -5.5 13 140 O
2016 Duke 93 UNC Wilmington 85 -10 13 154 O
2016 Iowa State 94 Iona 81 -7 4 165.5 O
2016 Kentucky 85 Stony Brook 57 -13.5 4 143 U
2015 Georgetown 84 Eastern Washington 74 -8.5 4 149 O
2015 Louisville 57 UC Irvine 55 -8.5 13 123 U
2015 Maryland 65 Valparaiso 62 -5 13 124 O
2015 North Carolina 67 Harvard 65 -10 13 139 U
2014 Louisville 71 Manhattan 64 -16 13 141.5 U
2014 Michigan State 93 Delaware 78 -14 4 154 O
2014 San Diego State 73 New Mexico State 69 -8 13 124 O
2014 UCLA 76 Tulsa 59 -8 4 147 U
2013 Kansas State 61 La Salle 63 -6 13 133.5 U
2013 Michigan 71 San Diego State 56 -11.5 4 139.5 U
2013 Saint Louis 64 New Mexico State 44 -9.5 4 125 U
2013 Syracuse 81 Montana 34 -13 4 126 U
2012 Indiana 79 New Mexico State 66 -6 4 155.5 U
2012 Louisville 69 Davidson 62 -5.5 4 139.5 U
2012 Michigan 60 Ohio 65 -5.5 13 125.5 U
2012 Wisconsin 73 Montana 49 -8.5 4 117 O
2011 Kentucky 59 Princeton 57 -13 13 132.5 U
2011 Louisville 61 Morehead State 62 -9.5 13 132 U
2011 Texas 85 Oakland 81 -10 13 157 O
2011 Wisconsin 72 Belmont 58 -4 4 128 O
2010 Maryland 89 Houston 77 -9.5 4 157.5 O
2010 Purdue 72 Siena 64 -4.5 4 132 O
2010 Vanderbilt 65 Murray State 66 -2.5 13 141 U
2010 Wisconsin 53 Wofford 49 -10 13 114.5 U
2009 Gonzaga 77 Akron 64 -13.5 13 133.5 O
2009 Wake Forest 69 Cleveland State 84 -7.5 13 138.5 O
2009 Washington 71 Mississippi State 58 -8 4 148.5 U
2009 Xavier 77 Portland State 59 -10.5 4 136.5 U
2008 Connecticut 69 San Diego 70 -12 13 133 O
2008 Pittsburgh 82 Oral Roberts 63 -8 4 129 O
2008 Vanderbilt 62 Siena 83 -7 13 153 U
2008 Washington State 71 Winthrop 40 -9.5 4 113 U
2007 Maryland 82 Davidson 70 -6.5 4 154 U
2007 Southern Illinois 61 Holy Cross 51 -7.5 4 110 O
2007 Texas 79 New Mexico State 67 -8 4 154.5 U
2007 Virginia 84 Albany 57 -8.5 4 135.5 O
2006 Boston College 88 Pacific 76 -8 4 133.5 O
2006 Illinois 78 Air Force 69 -8 4 112 O
2006 Kansas 73 Bradley 77 -7 13 135.5 O
2006 LSU 80 Iona 64 -7.5 4 148 U
2005 Boston College 85 Pennsylvania 65 -6.5 4 127.5 O
2005 Florida 67 Ohio 62 -11.5 13 137.5 U
2005 Louisville 68 Louisiana Lafayette 62 -11 13 149 U
2005 Syracuse 57 Vermont 60 -9 13 137.5 U
2004 Cincinnati 80 East Tennessee State 77 -8.5 13 147 O
2004 Kansas 78 Illinois Chicago 53 -8.5 4 138 U
2004 Maryland 86 UTEP 83 -6.5 13 149.5 O
2004 Wake Forest 79 VCU 78 -12.5 13 150.5 O
2003 Dayton 71 Tulsa 84 -2.5 13 138 O
2003 Illinois 65 Western Kentucky 60 -9.5 13 140.5 U
2003 Louisville 86 Austin Peay 64 -15.5 4 141.5 O
2003 Stanford 77 San Diego 69 -6.5 4 141.5 O
2002 Illinois 93 San Diego State 64 -11.5 4 143 O
2002 Kentucky 83 Valparaiso 68 -7.5 4 142 O
2002 Ohio State 69 Davidson 64 -13 13 134.5 U
2002 USC 89 UNC Wilmington 93 -11 13 131.5 O
2001 Indiana 73 Kent State 77 -6.5 13 126.5 O
2001 Kansas 99 Cal State Northridge 75 -12 4 153.5 O
2001 Oklahoma 68 Indiana State 70 -6.5 13 130 O
2001 UCLA 61 Hofstra 48 -7 4 146.5 U
2000 Illinois 68 Pennsylvania 58 -8 4 130 U
2000 LSU 64 Southeast Missouri State 61 -13 13 128.5 U
2000 Syracuse 79 Samford 65 -12.5 4 133 O
2000 Tennessee 63 Louisiana Lafayette 58 -12 13 143 U
1999 Arizona 60 Oklahoma 61 -5 13 146.5 U
1999 Arkansas 94 Siena 80 -7 4 166 O
1999 Ohio State 72 Murray State 58 -8.5 4 148 U
1999 Tennessee 62 Delaware 52 -10 P 143 U
1998 Maryland 82 Utah State 68 -10.5 4 139 O
1998 Michigan State 83 Eastern Michigan 71 -5.5 4 151 O
1998 New Mexico 79 Butler 62 -5 4 126 O
1998 Ole Miss 69 Valparaiso 70 -12 13 140.5 U
1997 Arizona 65 South Alabama 57 -10 13 --- ---
1997 Clemson 68 Miami Ohio 56 -4.5 4 --- ---
1997 St. Joseph's 75 Pacific 65 -3.5 4 --- ---
1997 Villanova 101 Long Island 91 -13.5 13 --- ---
1996 Marquette 68 Monmouth 44 -14 4 --- ---
1996 Syracuse 88 Montana State 55 -9.5 4 --- ---
1996 UCLA 41 Princeton 43 -10 13 --- ---
1996 Utah 72 Canisius 43 -16 4 --- ---
1995 Oklahoma State 73 Drexel 49 --- --- --- ---
1995 Utah 76 Long Beach State 64 --- --- --- ---
1995 Oklahoma 67 Manhattan 77 --- --- --- ---
1995 Virginia 96 Nicholls State 72 --- --- --- ---
1994 Temple 61 Drexel 39 --- --- --- ---
1994 Kansas 102 Chattanooga 73 --- --- --- ---
1994 Oklahoma State 65 New Mexico State 55 --- --- --- ---
1994 Syracuse 92 Hawaii 78 --- --- --- ---
1993 Arkansas 94 Holy Cross 64 --- --- --- ---
1993 Louisville 76 Delaware 70 --- --- --- ---
1993 Iowa 82 Louisiana Monroe 69 --- --- --- ---
1993 Georgia Tech 78 Southern 93 --- --- --- ---
1992 Seton Hall 78 La Salle 76 --- --- --- ---
1992 Oklahoma 83 Louisiana Lafayette 87 --- --- --- ---
1992 North Carolina 68 Miami Ohio 63 --- --- --- ---
1992 Cincinnati 85 Delaware 47 --- --- --- ---
1991 UCLA 69 Penn State 74 --- --- --- ---
1991 Alabama 89 Murray State 79 --- --- --- ---
1991 St. John's 75 Northern Illinois 68 --- --- --- ---
1991 Utah 82 South Alabama 72 --- --- --- ---
1990 La Salle 79 Southern Mississippi 63 --- --- --- ---
1990 Arkansas 68 Princeton 64 --- --- --- ---
1990 Georgia Tech 99 East Tennessee State 83 --- --- --- ---
1990 Louisville 78 Idaho 59 --- --- --- ---
1989 Iowa 87 Rutgers 73 --- --- --- ---
1989 UNLV 68 Idaho 56 --- --- --- ---
1989 Florida State 83 Middle Tennessee 97 --- --- --- ---
1989 Louisville 76 Arkansas Little Rock 71 --- --- --- ---
1988 Indiana 69 Richmond 72 --- --- --- ---
1988 Kansas State 66 La Salle 53 --- --- --- ---
1988 BYU 98 Charlotte 92 --- --- --- ---
1988 UNLV 54 Missouri State 50 --- --- --- ---
1987 TCU 76 Marshall 60 --- --- --- ---
1987 Clemson 60 Missouri State 65 --- --- --- ---
1987 Missouri 69 Xavier 70 --- --- --- ---
1987 UCLA 92 Central Michigan 73 --- --- --- ---
1986 Oklahoma 80 Northeastern 74 --- --- --- ---
1986 Georgetown 70 Texas Tech 64 --- --- --- ---
1986 Illinois 75 Fairfield 51 --- --- --- ---
1986 UNLV 74 Louisiana Monroe 51 --- --- --- ---
1985 Loyola Illinois 59 Iona 58 --- --- --- ---
1985 UNLV 85 San Diego State 80 --- --- --- ---
1985 LSU 55 Navy 78 --- --- --- ---
1985 Ohio State 75 Iowa State 64 --- --- --- ---

A total of 26 teams have pulled off upsets in the 4/13 games all-time in the NCAA Tournament, and rare is the year that there isn't at least one team on the #13 line get into the second round of the dance. The #4s have swept the board eight times out of a possible 32 years, and that fact remains rather stunning when you consider the fact that the average #4 seed is favored by 9-points. #13 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 a total of six times in the past, so the precedent is there for teams coming from this low in the bracket getting through the whole first weekend.

There are still plenty of big point spreads in the 4/13 games. Right at 25 percent of the games feature double-digit spreads, and just four of those teams who were double-digit dogs ultimately went on to pull off upsets, the most recent of which was San Diego over Connecticut in the 2008 NCAA Tournament. That said, there are also a lot of spreads that are awfully close, too. In 2003 and 2010, we had a #13 seed that was only set at +2.5 against a #4. In both cases, first with Tulsa over Dayton in 2003, then with Murray State over Vandy in 2010, the underdog team pulled off the upset.

With all of these upsets in mind though, it's still worth remembering that the top seeds are Top 4 seeds for a reason. Though the advent of the First Four has closed the gap just a bit between say, the #15 and #2 seeds or the #14 and #3 seeds, the teams that were the #1 seeds in their conference tournaments who come into this field as #13s haven't changed a heck of a lot, while the rules now allow the Selection Committee to give preferential treatment to the seeds on the Top 4 lines, allowing for a bit of home court advantage to come into play. As a result, #4 seeds are a healthy 45-38-1 ATS all-time. At least one #4 seed has covered in the opening round of every NCAA Tournament since betting lines were made readily available in 1996.

Though many of these 4/13 games end up being relatively close, there have been some big blowouts, too. Syracuse has one of the biggest blowouts in tourney history as a #4 seed, as it crushed Montana by 47 points in 2013. The biggest win for a #13 over a #4 actually belongs to Navy from the very first 64-team NCAA Tournament in 1985. The Middies took care of the Tigers by a whopping 23 points.

The spreads in totals is also a bit interesting. The lowest total in an NCAA Tournament game in any round came in the opening round in 2007 when Southern Illinois and Holy Cross had a total of just 110. The game "flew" past the total with 122 total points scored. That said, the second highest total in a first round game in NCAA Tournament history was also on the 4/13 line. Arkansas and Siena cruised past a total of 166.

Totals have been almost perfectly split in 4/13 games at 39-37 towards the over.

Since 2014, #4 seeds are a near-perfect 11-1 SU, but they're just 5-7 ATS in those same 12 games.

Louisville has been a #4 seed more than any other team in the history of the 64-team NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals are 8-1 in those nine games, the one loss coming by a single point to Morehead State in 2011. Oklahoma has been on the #4 line four times since 1986, and it has gone just 1-3 SU in those games. New Mexico State was a #13 seed in three straight NCAA Tournaments from 2012 through 2014 and has been a #13 five times overall. The Aggies have yet to pull off an upset from this line and are just 1-3 ATS to show for their work in their four lined games as #13 seeds. Xavier is also an interesting team in that, it's the only one to win a game in the NCAA Tournament both as a #4 and as a #13 seed.

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