Yet another spot in the Kentucky Derby will be taken on Saturday at Oaklawn Park where a whopping field of 14 go for glory at the Rebel Stakes.
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1: Creator 6/1
1A: Madtap 6/1
2: Z Royal 20/1
2X: Gray Sky 20/1
3: Ralis 12/1
4: Cupid 7/2
5: Discreetness 12/1
6: Siding Spring 20/1
7: Spikes Shirl 30/1
8: American Dubai 12/1
9: Cutacorner 30/1
10: Whitmore 7/2
11: Cherry Wine 12/1
12: Suddenbreakingnews 3/1
You never see a full field of 14 in a race like this one, but with no obvious contender who can be a favorite to win the Kentucky Derby available, there are a lot of trainers out there who think they can steal a bid into the biggest race of the year.
As a result, there isn't a pony in this field better than the 3 to 1 of Suddenbreakingnews. He and Cupid are the two overwhelming favorites to win the Rebel Stakes.
Part of what's making this such a tough race to handicap is the fact that there are a pair of groupings in the race. Creator and Madtap are lumped together under the common training for Steven Asmussen, while Z Royal and Gray Sky are both trained by D. Wayne Lukas.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Class Rating suggests that Suddenbreakingnews is the best horse in this field, though Prime Power only has him as the fifth best pony of the 14. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but the Southwest Stakes winner is certainly going to be worth watching in this one.
What really made the run for Suddenbreakingnews so impressive last month is that he started off on the far outside and was pushed further outside around the first turn. His last push was impressive, as he sprinted from fifth up to first in all sorts of traffic. Of all the races we've seen this year, Suddenbreakingnews had the most powerful finish of the bunch, and that in and of itself makes him one to watch in the Rebel for sure.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Discreetness had a bad run in the Southwest Stakes last month, but we think he might ultimately be a difference-maker on the track on Saturday. He was a 5 to 1 choice in the Southwest for a reason, and we just don't see the justification for him going up to 12 to 1.
What we really want to see out of jockey Jon Court in this race is a clean start. Discreetness was pushed eight-wide in the first turn in the Southwest Stakes, and that isn't going to cut it in this race due to the size of the 14-horse field. Discreetness started in the No. 14 post in the Southwest Stakes, but he's got a much more favorable No. 4 slot to start in here at the Rebel, and that could make a big difference for him.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Even though Suddenbreakingnews is the trendy horse right now, we don't think he's ultimately winning this race. Getting both Creator and Madtap has to be tempting in the 1-1A ticket at 6 to 1, while Siding Spring has to be considered tempting at 20 to 1 as the top-ranked horse according to Prime Power.
Still, Discreetness provides the best value as we see it. He's a fine horse with a real shot to go on to Churchill Downs and challenge the best three-year olds in the world. A 12 to 1 price on him is remarkable.
Play Discreetness to win the Rebel Stakes
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here, and start wagering right now! Bet on horse racing today with the Rebel Stakes, which goes to post on Saturday, March 19, 2016 at 7:06 p.m. ET at Oaklawn Park.