Golden Gate Fields doesn't often produce Kentucky Derby winners, but being in it with a fight is all that any of these horses running at the El Camino Real Derby could possibly ask for. The winner is very likely going to be headed off to Santa Anita for the Santa Anita Derby in a couple months, and that's where real money and a real shot to get into the Kentucky Derby can be had.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Kelly With a Twist
2: Kasseopia
3: Touched by Autism
4: Mr. Coker
5: Oscar Dominguez
6: San Dimas
7: Marqula
8: Tusk
9: Algenon
10: Diplodocus
11: Go Long
12: Frank Conversation
13: Mana Strike
14: Giopress
It's interesting to think that some of the other Kentucky Derby prep races can't field anywhere near a full crop, but here at the El Camino Real Derby, the race organizers had to beat away trainers and owners who wanted their colts to have a shot at this relatively modest $200,000 purse.
Trying to find a major favorite in a 14-horse field is nearly impossible, and we can't imagine that any of these ponies are going to go into the starting gate at less than 3 to 1. Frank Conversation figures to be one of the chief favorites, though the fact that he's clearly going backwards in terms of his level of competition tells us that he's devolving as a racer in this, his three-year old year.
Eleven of the 14 horses in this field have never run in a graded stakes race, and three of the 14 have never run in anything aside from a maiden effort.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Frank Conversation is probably the one colt in this bunch capable of making some noise at the Kentucky Derby. He's got great breeding behind him with Quality Road as his sire, and Doug O'Neill is a trainer who is only going to bring a colt like this to a race like this if he knows he can win.
Frank Conversation ran well at the California Derby last month here on this track, and it's entirely possible that he's just taking to Golden Gate Fields well. A win here will give him a shot with the big boys again, an opportunity he squandered at the Los Alamitos Futurity in December when he placed fifth.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
With two wins in three races at Golden Gate Fields, Mana Strike is going to be a competitor here. He's never run a 90 Beyer Speed Rating in his career, something that would surely have to change in this one, but if he can do that, we think he's got a real shot for trainer Frank Lucarelli.
Our real concern is that his current workouts haven't been great. Mana Strike only ran 1:17 and 4 over six furlongs here on this track last weekend in his most recent workout.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We know that Frank Conversation is going to get off to a good start in this race, and that's effectively going to slice the size of the field dramatically for his purposes. Traffic shouldn't end up being a nightmare.
We just don't see any other colt in this field who we think is better than Frank Conversation. Sometimes, you just have to back the best horse, and even though the best horse doesn't always win, we'll still take our chances at what will probably be a price of at least 3 to 1 on the best pony in the El Camino Real.
Play Frank Conversation to win the El Camino Real Derby
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