This time of year, there's a ton of focus on the three-year old colts who are trying to get into the Kentucky Derby field. However, there's a ton of great racing going on all over the country. On Saturday, three-year old filly turfers will take to the track at Gulfstream Park for the Davona Dale Stakes, a Grade 2 race with a rather large $200,000 purse.
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1: Thrilled 6/1
2: Dearest 5/1
3: Bagema 30/1
4: Lewis Bay 4/1
5: Cathryn Sophia 6/5
6: R Girls a Charmer 9/2
7: Rontos Lily 30/1
This is a rather small field considering the prize money which is at stake. Cathryn Sophia is the favorite here, and there's a good chance she's going to end up as an odds-on favorite. That said, there are four other fillies in R Girls a Charmer, Lewis Bay, Dearest and Thrilled who are all between 4 to 1 and 6 to 1.
Rontos Lily and Bagema are both 30 to 1, and it would be a shocker to see either one hit the money.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Cathryn Sophia is still undefeated at this point, and until we see her get beaten, we've got no reason to do anything but continue to play her. This is the first time that Javier Castellano has been on her back though, and that could end up being an item of concern.
Thus far, Cathryn Sophia has managed to get out of the blocks fast and race to the finish line without any problems. In fact, in her first two races, she posted wins by 12 and 16 lengths respectively. Though she's up against a really good field here, she's also had no problems at the Grade 2 level before, winning the Forward Gal Stakes by 5 1/2 lengths.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Lewis Bay might be ranked fourth in this race according to Prime Power, but she's the second favorite for a good reason. Sure, she hasn't raced since last November, but she also has experience at this distance, winning the Demoisel Stakes at Aqueduct by 1 3/4 lengths. She, like Cathryn Sophia has really dominated at times, as she broke her maiden by six lengths at Belmont.
The fact that Lewis Bay has never run faster than an 88 Beyer Speed Rating is concerning knowing that she's going up against a filly who has already clocked 99 three times, but this could end up being her best race yet.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
There are just too many variables in this race for us to trust Cathryn Sophia even though we know she's got the best horse in this field. Can she handle the distance? Can she deal with a new jockey for the first time? Can she cover the distance? Can she deal with a rock solid field?
Though there's questions around Lewis Bay as well, we're going to use some process of elimination here to get rid of the other contenders. Thrilled has already been beaten by Lewis Bay. Dearest has never run in a graded stakes race. Neither has R Girls a Charmer.
What's left for us is a filly that we trust in spite of her layoff. Lewis Bay has some great value here at 4 to 1, and we're going to take advantage of that on Saturday at Gulfstream.
Play Lewis Bay to win the Davona Dale Stakes
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here, and start wagering right now! Bet on horse racing today with the Davona Dale Stakes, which goes to post on Saturday, February 27, 2016 at 1:56 p.m. ET at Gulfstream Park.