A battle between AFC heavyweights closes out the Week 6 betting schedule when the Buffalo Bills visit the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. Since losing their opener the Bills have been on a roll winning their last four games by an average of nearly 30 points while going 4-0 ATS. The Bills were rolling last year at this time making a trip to Nashville with a perfect 4-0 record. The Titans put an end to that streak with a convincing 42-16 triumph. It was the fewest points the Bills scored in a game all season and the most points they surrendered. Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line to avenge that setback.
This matchup in Week 6 of the regular season will take place on Monday, October 18, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville will be televised on ESPN.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills -5.5
Tennessee Titans +5.5
Total 54
Odds Analysis
The Bills look like the best team in the NFL and following their 38-20 win in Kansas City they’ve jumped to the top of the Super Bowl odds board. The betting public is jumping on the Buffalo bandwagon as well. Hitting the board as a 3-point favorite the visitors got plenty of action moving the line up to Buffalo -5.5. Beating their last four opponents by an average of nearly 30 points tends to do that. They covered in each of their previous four games, including a 40-0 smackdown of Houston when laying 19-points. Over their last 16 games the Bills are 13-3 ATS. Playing as a 3-point home dog the Titans handed Buffalo its worst defeat of last season, 42-16, shutting down Josh Allen and the explosive offense. However, the Titans are just 4-5 ATS at home since then.
Player to Watch
I’m going with a player from each side in this category since they’ll both have a direct impact on the outcome. COVID played havoc with last year’s matchup which could have led to Allen’s horrific outing. With the game played on a Tuesday night Buffalo’s signal-caller looked out of sorts. He threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, but the big plays that were a part of the offense weren’t there. The Titans collected two interceptions and recovered a fumble setting up short fields each time that were converted into touchdowns. Allen cut down the miscues significantly last season tossing 10 picks in 572 pass attempts, but he threw two picks twice in a game and the Bills lost both. He has just two picks so far in 2021.
Led by Derrick Henry the Titans have the third-best run game in the NFL. Henry leads the entire league with 640 yards, over 100 more yards than second-place Nick Chubb, and he’s reached the end zone a league high seven times on the ground. Henry wasn’t a factor in last year’s game rushing for only 57 yards, but he did score twice. I doubt the Bills will be so generous with the football in this game making Henry’s contributions more important. Buffalo gives up the fewest yards and has the third-best run defense yielding just 78.4 yard on the ground.
Key Stat
If you don’t think turnovers play a role in deciding a game just look at the stats. The Bills are the best in the business at forcing turnovers with a NFL-high 15 takeaways and a plus-11 turnover margin. They are tied for the best record in the AFC at 4-1. On the other end is the winless Jaguars, who have coughed it up 11 times and have the worst margin at minus-10. And the Bills have been ball-hawks during their winning streak forcing at least three turnovers in every game while compiling all 15 during that run. They forced Patrick Mahomes into three turnovers last week and registered four in the game, including a pick-six from Micah Hyde. After giving away the football seven times in their first three games the Titans have not committed a turnover over their last two games.
Free ATS Pick
Buffalo avenged a pair of losses to the Chiefs, including that setback in the conference title game, with their win in KC last week. They get a chance to make up for another setback this time around. We know what the Bills can do on offense and Allen has settled in after a rough opener. Maybe that mega-bucks deal he signed in the offseason weighed him down. I’m not convinced the Titans are at the same level and they’ve had the benefit of a soft schedule. In their only matchup with a winning club the Titans were hammered by Arizona. That has me leaning toward Buffalo minus the points, though the total is too high for my liking.
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5 / UNDER 54
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
