This Week 4 tilt between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers sure looked a whole lot better on paper before the regular season kicked off. Since scoring a huge upset of the Buffalo Bills on the road in its season opener, Pittsburgh has looked nothing short of dreadful in two straight losses to the Raiders and Bengals. On the flipside, the Packers have bounced back nicely with a pair of wins and covers against the Lions and 49ers since getting its salad tossed by the New Orleans Saints in its respective season opener. With that, online sportsbooks currently have the home based Cheeseheads installed near touchdown favorites to come out of this clash victorious and continue building a resume worthy of being considered a Super Bowl LVI contender. Not so much for the Steelers who look to be well on their way towards failing to surpass their 8.5-game season win total odds likely many an NFL bettor forecasted heading into the regular season.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup on Sunday, October 3, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field on CBS.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5
Green Bay Packers -6.5
Total 45.5
Odds Analysis
When this game was made available to wager on over the summer, Green Bay only clocked in as a field goal favorite. Fast forward to the Week 4 look-ahead lines, and they had the Pack installed 6.5-point favorites with the total lined at 47.5. With the teams heading in completely opposite directions, it comes with little surprise to see the outcome of this game moving heavily towards the hosts. The betting market continues to buy in as well even though the point spread remains unchanged with heavier juice attached to the Packers. It’s possible the number to beat actually moves to the key number of -7 with 86 percent of the bets and 79 percent of the money booked laying the home chalk. With Pittsburgh’s best attribute coming on the defensive side of the ball, the O/U is on the decline down to 45.5 even though a majority of the action expects points to hit the board. Looks like the Joes and Pros are toeing opposite sides of the line when it comes to the total.
Player Prop Target
Though Pittsburgh has failed miserably to run the football this season evidenced by being ranked dead last with an average of 53.0 yards per game, it still hasn’t stopped the Steelers from doing so with regularity every passing contest. Najee Harris has gotten a chance to run the football 40 times through his first three starts in the NFL. Though his high water mark clocks in at 45 yards, I’m expecting the stud RB to find some traction here against a Green Bay run defense that’s given up over 115 yards per game (No. 16) and a healthy 4.4 yards per carry (No. 21) to opposing ball carriers. Mike Tomlin knows his team won’t be able to compete in a shootout. With that, hit the over of Najee’s rushing yards prop and keep your fingers crossed Pittsburgh keeps it close enough so as to not be forced to abandon the run early on.
Free ATS Pick
The Steelers have been nothing if not money in the bank when linemakers install them underdogs having gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS over the last 10 instances. It already has an outright road dog win under its belt after upsetting Buffalo the opening week of the season. There are however many unknowns heading into this one with integral pieces to the puzzle currently listed as questionable to play on both sides of the ball. Big Ben could be without both Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster, while the defense could be without T.J. Watt once again as he attempts to recover from the groin injury incurred Week 2 against the Raiders.
Making the chore of competing all the more tough is that the Packers seem to have found their sea legs. Aaron Jones has been beasting for weeks having gone for 211 combined yards and 5 TD over the last two games, while Devante Adams got in on the act last week in a big showing against the 49ers. Regardless, this is a quintessential Tomlin dog spot. He always gets his team to rise up under these circumstances. If he can’t do so this time around, it’ll be confirmation that it’s time to stick a fork in the Steelers. I’ll pay up to see if the Grim Reaper is actually in attendance.
NFL Pick: Packers 24, Steelers 23
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