Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. Last year was one of the worst seasons in recent memory for these picks and they still ended up above .500. Let’s take a look at the Week 1 Ugly Dog picks.
NFL Week 1 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me begin by saying that in the first few weeks we really are not sure who the bad teams will be. We can look at last year’s records and some of the predictions, but until we start to see the games, we don’t know which teams will be truly awful. The public also doesn’t have a great feel for the teams they want to bet against early in the season. That will start to change going forward, but for now we’ll start slowly.
Houston Texans +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is no doubt among most people that the Houston Texans are going to struggle this season. They begin the 2021 season with the lowest win total of any team in the NFL. There are not many bettors that want anything to do with the Texans and that figures to be the case all season. When we do this Ugly Dog column every year, we almost always have some teams that we have to go with on a regular basis. The Houston Texans figure to be one of those teams for this year. The Texans do have a capable quarterback in Tyrod Taylor but the defense looks really bad and it may be hard to the Houston offense to put up enough points each week to be competitive. The Jaguars are expected to be much better this season, but they are starting a rookie quarterback and they are laying points on the road. We’ll take the Texans plus the points as an ugly dog.
Detroit Lions +7.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
One team that most people think is going to struggle is the Detroit Lions. They are opening up at home and getting more than a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers. The Lions are not expected to be very good this season, but they have a quarterback in Jared Goff who has a chip on his shoulder and the offensive line looks pretty good. The problem for the Lions is a defense that doesn’t figure to stop anyone. The 49ers are one of those teams that can look like a Super Bowl contender at times and also look like they don’t know what they are doing at other times. There is no question that the value in this game is on the Lions and there is also no question they begin the season as an ugly dog. We’ll take the Lions plus the points.
Chicago Bears +7.5 at Los Angeles Rams
We don’t know yet if the Bears are going to be an ugly dog, but this is a team that has Andy Dalton at quarterback and they are going into Los Angeles and facing Aaron Donald and the Rams defense. Can you see anything other than a Los Angeles win and Dalton throwing interceptions? There is no doubt that the public is going to be all over the Rams at home and that gives us value on the Bears. The Rams are supposed to be much better this season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, but Stafford has yet to prove he can win. Most people think the Rams are going to be a very good team this season with Stafford under center, but this might be a tougher test than anticipated against a Chicago defense that can make plays. We’ll take the Bears plus the points as an ugly dog.
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