For the last five seasons, either the New Orleans Saints or Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the NFC South. Those two teams were the big favorites to win the division by the NFL futures odds coming into this season, but they have not been able to separate themselves from Atlanta or Carolina. Tampa Bay is currently 2-1 against division foes, and a win over New Orleans on Monday Night Football would go a long way to helping the Buccaneers winning the NFC South for the second straight season.
The NFC South race is wide open as no team has a winning record at this point of the season. Only 1.5 games separate the first place Tampa Bay Buccaneers from the last place New Orleans Saints, and these teams will meet on Monday Night Football on December 5, 2022, at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
NFL Week 13 Betting Odds
New Orleans Saints +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
Total 39.5
Money Line: Saints +160, Buccaneers -185
Odds Analysis
There has been a significant amount of action on the New Orleans Saints ahead of this game. Tampa Bay was initially favored by six points per the NFL betting odds, but the Buccaneers are now just a four-point favorite. Meanwhile, the total has risen from 40 to 40.5 points.
New Orleans Saints
In the first meeting between these teams, Jameis Winston was the starting quarterback. However, Winston has sat behind Andy Dalton for the last two months, and it looks like Dalton will receive another start this week. Dalton hasn’t been good, but he has been more efficient than Winston this season. The Red Rifle is completing 66.4% of his passes for 2,023 yards (7.5 YPA) with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Rookie Chris Olave is the leading receiver on the Saints with 56 receptions for 822 yards and three touchdowns. Alvin Kamara is the top running back with 524 yards (4.0 YPC) and a touchdown, and he is the second leading receiver with 49 receptions for 422 yards and two touchdowns.
The Saints rank 20th in scoring defense (23.3 PPG) and 11th in total defense (326.4 YPG). They have done an excellent job at standing strong in the red zone, ranking third in red zone defense, and they have recorded 33 sacks in 12 games to rank among the top ten teams in the NFL. However, New Orleans has a league-low two interceptions, both by Tyrann Mathieu.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady is not having his best season under center, but he hasn’t been terrible for Tampa Bay considering the struggles along the offensive line. Brady is completing 66.2% of his passes for 3,051 yards (6.5 YPA) with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain his top two targets, but the lack of a quality ground game has really hurt this offense.
The Buccaneers have the worst ground game in the NFL. Tampa Bay is averaging just 3.3 YPC and 73.0 YPG, ranking dead last in both categories. Leonard Fournette has been injured and has somewhat given way to rookie Rachaad White who has been a little more efficient and a better receiver out of the backfield.
Tampa Bay ranks in the top ten in total defense and scoring defense. The Buccaneers are allowing 315.2 YPG and 18.5 PPG, and the secondary has been much better than it was last year. They are very good at getting after the quarterback with 36 sacks in 11 games too. However, there are currently some injury concerns in the secondary as Logan Ryan is on injured reserve, and Sean Murphy-Bunting, Mike Edwards, and Antoine Winfield Jr. are all questionable.
Saints at Buccaneers Free Pick
The Under is probably the best bet in this game, just as it was when these teams first met in 2022. There were only six points scored in three quarters, so don’t expect a lot of scoring on MNF.
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