The recent relocation of each franchise hasn’t lessened the intensity of a rivalry that dates back to the first year of the old AFL. The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers will clash for the 123rd time when they meet Monday Night in Inglewood. And for the first time in a few years both clubs have their sights set on the AFC West crown. The Raiders opened with three consecutive victories while the Chargers posted an impressive road win against the Chiefs last week in a sign that perhaps the balance of power is shifting within the division. The Bolts hit the board as a field goal favorite to close out the NFL betting week.
This matchup in Week 4 of the regular season will take place on Monday, October 4, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Las Vegas Raiders+3
Los Angeles Chargers-3
Total 52
Odds Analysis
Pegging the home team as field goal favorite seems right in line with the way this game is shaping up. Both clubs have started strong with the Raiders getting overtime victories over Baltimore and Miami at home as part of their unbeaten start. They also knocked off a floundering Steelers team in Week 2. Vegas closed as 4-point chalk last week getting a field goal in the extra session for the victory. It was their first ATS loss of the year. Perhaps luck paid a part in those two extra time wins or maybe the Raiders have finally figured out how to win. The Chargers had nothing to lose and they played like it last week in their win over KC. Hand it to Brandon Staley for making the gutsy calls as the Bolts improved to 2-1 SU and ATS with their 30-24 upset.
Players to Watch
If you noticed I made this section about multiple players since the outcome will come down to which quarterback makes the plays. Both teams have been pass-heavy in their offensive approach this season throwing the ball more than 63 percent of the time. The play calling may have been by design but it’s also out of necessity since neither club has been particularly effective running the football. The Raiders rank 25th averaging 91.3 rushing yards while the Chargers are 26th with 87.3 yards per game. A lot has been piled on the plates of Justin Herbert and Derek Carr and they’ve delivered.
Carr has thrown for more than 380 yards in every game completing 64.7 percent of his passes with six touchdowns. At his current pace over a 17-game season he’ll amass over 6,800 passing yards. Those numbers are not sustainable, though, and the Chargers can lock down defending the aerial attack. Herbert has been pretty darn good, too, throwing for 956 yards and six scores for the league’s fourth-best passing attack. The teams split last season’s series with both games cashing the OVER. It looks like we could be in for something similar on Monday night.
Key Stat
The Raiders offense has been sharp in the early going leading the NFL in total yards and passing yards while ranking sixth with 30 points per game. The numbers were helped out a little with extra possessions in their two overtime games, but I’m not picking on them. The success of the unit obviously relies on possessing the football and they face a Chargers defense that has allowed opponents to convert exactly half of its third and fourth down chances. Kansas City was 6 of 10 on third down last week, which probably led to Staley’s decision to go for it on fourth down late with the game tied. The Bolts yielded 437 total yards but still were able to come away with the victory.
Free ATS Pick
Three games into the season both clubs are feeling good about their chances of dethroning KC at the top of the division. The Raiders may have had some luck on their side winning twice in overtime overcoming two-touchdown deficits against Baltimore and Miami. They won’t quit and the offense appears to be in a good place. With both teams likely to put the ball in the air the OVER is in serious jeopardy. And I also think the Raiders luck is about to run out making the home team a good gamble against the spread.
NFL Pick: Chargers 32, Raiders 27
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