Could the Kansas City Chiefs fall to 2-3 on Sunday night? The oddsmakers certainly think there is a decent chance for that to happen as the Chiefs are less than a field goal favorite at home against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has looked like one of the best teams in the NFL since losing to Pittsburgh in its season opener, winning its last three games by a total of 97 points.
The AFC Championship Game rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will take place on Sunday, October 10, 2021, at 8:20 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium on NBC.
NFL Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
Total 56.5
Josh Allen and the Bills weren’t able to move the ball effectively against the Pittsburgh Steelers in their season opener, but they have dominated their last three opponents. The Bills thwacked Miami and Houston by a combined score of 75-0, and they hammered Washington 43-21 in Week 3.
The Chiefs haven’t had many losing streaks under Andy Reid, but they lost consecutive games to the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers before bouncing back to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 42-30 last week behind a three-touchdown performance from Tyreek Hill.
Buffalo is one of the most well-rounded teams per the basic stats. The Bills rank second in scoring offense (33.5 PPG) and sixth in total offense (404.0 YPG), and they top the league in scoring defense and total defense.
They have been able to run the ball well through the first month of the season. Devin Singletary and Josh Allen are both averaging 5.3 YPC, while Zack Moss is running for 4.2 YPC as more of a short yardage back. That has led to the Bills ranking fifth in the league in rushing offense.
Emmanuel Sanders is the deep threat, averaging 16.8 YPR, as Stefon Diggs is being used more on underneath routes to this point. Diggs is averaging just 11.7 YPR, so Allen is picking up just 6.7 YPA on his throws. Opposing defenses are going to start daring him to throw deep once again soon, as inaccuracy was his biggest problem his first two seasons.
Kansas City has the most frightening offense in the league with Patrick Mahomes under center. Mahomes is a bit more mistake prone than we have seen in previous seasons, but he is still lighting up the scoreboard. The best quarterback in the NFL is completing 72.3% of his passes for 1,218 yards (8.6 YPA) with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions to this point.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are still the top options in the passing game. Hill is averaging 15.1 YPR for the Chiefs, while Kelce isn’t far behind at 13.0 YPR. Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle are seeing more balls thrown their way too now that Sammy Watkins is in Baltimore.
The Chiefs are averaging 5.1 YPC. Mahomes and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have been very effective with their legs, but Edwards-Helaire needs to hold onto the ball. He has fumbled twice on 58 carries, frustrating Andy Reid and this offense.
Prediction
The over is going to be a popular pick in this game. Kansas City has allowed at least 29 points in each of its first four games, and the lowest scoring Chiefs’ game has had 54 points on the board. Buffalo has been able to move the ball very well, and Kansas City doesn’t have a good secondary.
As for the side, the Chiefs have to be the pick. They are way too talented on offense to be less than a three-point favorite at home, and the Bills have benefited greatly from playing a lot of bad quarterbacks. Mahomes is much more talented than Ben Roethlisberger, Tua Tagovailoa, Taylor Heinicke, or Davis Mills.
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