The Kansas City Chiefs go for their fifth straight win over the Baltimore Ravens when the AFC heavyweights collide on Sunday Night Football to close the NFL Week 2 weekend betting schedule. Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a comeback win over Cleveland last week with another scintillating performance. However, they failed to cover the spread and are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games including playoffs. For the first time since 2015 the Ravens opened the season with a loss, falling to Vegas in overtime on Monday night. They get the two-time defending AFC champs on a short week and they are getting 3.5 points on the NFL betting line.
This matchup in Week 2 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, September 19, 2021, at 8:20 p.m. ET at MT Bank Stadium and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Baltimore Ravens +3.5
Over/Under 55.5
Odds Analysis
Action on the Chiefs forced a full point spike in the spread. KC hit the board at -2.5, and while oddsmakers don’t like to cross key numbers they did in this matchup with the line up to KC -3.5. When favored by at least a field goal in their last five road games the Chiefs are 4-1 SU and 0-4-1 ATS. The betting public flocked to the OVER when the total hit the board at 53.5. That forced a 2-point jump in the number to 55.5, currently the highest on the Week 2 board. The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with the teams averaging a combined 53.5 points.
Matchup to Watch
The Ravens like to run the football and they’ve been very good at it leading the NFL in rushing the last two seasons. And they want to keep the ball away from Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense so having success in this area is a key to their chances. The ground game took a hit with the loss of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to season-ending injuries, but Ty’Son Williams provided a spark last week and Baltimore amassed 189 yards and two touchdowns running the football.
Jackson is the key. He led the team in rushing the last two seasons and had 86 yards last week with Williams chipping in 65 on nine carries. Those two averaged over 7.0 yards per carry and the team got 5.6 yards per attempt. The Chiefs had a tough time stopping Cleveland’s powerful run game allowing 153 yards and 5.9 yards per tote last week. Even though they won, the Chiefs have to contain Jackson to slow down Baltimore’s offense.
Key Injuries
We already touched on Baltimore’s injury issues in the backfield. That wasn’t as big a concern on Monday night as their depleted secondary. With Marcus Peters out for the year and Jimmy Smith on the shelf with an ankle injury, the Ravens were picked apart by Derek Carr and the Raiders passing game. It took a while to get going but Vegas used the aerial attack to overcome a 14-point deficit and then won the game in OT on Carr’s 31-yard touchdown pass. The defense wilted in the second half and overtime allowing 308 yards through the air. Baltimore had the sixth-best pass defense last year allowing 221 yards per game.
Even with a defense at full strength the Ravens haven’t been able to contain Mahomes. He was 31 of 42 passing for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s 34-20 victory. Mahomes averaged nearly 380 passing yards per game in his three starts against the Ravens with nine touchdowns and just one interception. The Chiefs scored at least 27 points in all three games while averaging 31.3 points.
Free ATS Pick
With both defenses looking sloppy last week there’s a good chance we see plenty of fireworks on Sunday night. Tyrann Mathieu should play this week after being activated off the COVID list and Frank Clark is on schedule to suit up giving the Chiefs a few more defenders to combat Jackson. And we’ll probably see the Ravens attempt to run the football more to keep pressure off their quarterback. Jackson was harassed last week and his two turnovers led to Vegas touchdowns. I’m not giving up on Baltimore after one game and I think they’ll hang with KC in what should be a high-scoring affair.
NFL Pick: Ravens 31, Chiefs 28
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