Any concerns about Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers were erased with a big win on Monday night. Now in the win column the Pack will try and hand the San Francisco 49ers their first defeat of the year. Following road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia, the Niners open the home portion of their schedule on Sunday Night Football as a 3.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line. Only once in the previous five meetings has a game between these two been decided by fewer than two touchdowns. While we might expect a close game there’s a good chance we don’t get one.
This matchup in Week 3 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, September 26, 2021, at 8:20 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Green Bay Packers +3.5
San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Total 49.5
Odds Analysis
Considering they’re not division opponents the teams should be quite familiar with each other since they’ve played during the regular season in each of the last three years. There was also a playoff matchup that Rodgers and the Packers would like to forget. Only one of those games saw a closing line lower than 6-points so having the Niners as a 3.5-point favorite is unique. The line has held steady since hitting the board and unless something drastic happens before kickoff it shouldn’t move much if at all. With Green Bay’s offense on track we saw the total spike a point after hitting the board at 48.5. The teams cashed the OVER in each of the previous two games and in nine of the last 12 encounters.
Player to Watch
I guess at this stage of his career and with all that he’s accomplished we shouldn’t doubt Rodgers. Once again the voice of reason he basically said to his team ‘don’t panic’ after the Week 1 blowout loss to the Saints. And like a true leader Rodgers pointed the finger at himself after a disastrous outing. Fast forward to Week 2 and all’s good in Green Bay. Rodgers was his vintage self completing 22 of 27 for 255 yards and four touchdowns in the 35-17 win and cover over the Lions.
Rodgers has had mixed results at Levi’s Stadium. In last season’s game he threw for 305 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the Packers 34-17 victory. The Niners were ravaged by injuries at that point with several key defensive players on the shelf. In the NFC Championship a few years ago he amassed 326 passing yards and two scores. However, he was intercepted twice and sacked three times with San Francisco earning a trip to the Super Bowl with a 37-20 victory. After struggling in the second half against Detroit, the Niners did a better job against the pass last week holding the Eagles 190 yards through the air.
Key Injuries
No stranger to the injury bug the Niners are quickly getting reacquainted with the nasty insect. That is just a play on words or course. After seeing a number of players go down last season essentially torpedoing the season, the Niners will have to find someone who can run the football with the running back group decimated. Starter Raheem Mostert was lost for the year in the opener and three backs sustained injuries last week. JaMycal Hasty has already been ruled out while Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon at least have a chance to play on Sunday night. That’s terrible news for a team that relies heavily on the ground game. In the conference title game a few years ago, the Niners amassed 285 rushing yards with Mostert going for 220 and four touchdowns. At least the Packers won’t have to stop Mostert, but they will have to contain whoever runs the football.
Free ATS Pick
The Niners have mixed emotions heading into this contest. They are excited to play their first home game after a pair of road wins to start the season. But the team is facing issues in the backfield with an assortment of injuries already. Without a running game I don’t see Jimmy Garoppolo doing enough to cover the spread. And while a win over Detroit doesn’t cure Green Bay’s ills, it’s a start. We may actually get a close game between two teams expected to fight for supremacy in the NFC.
NFL Pick: Packers 32, 49ers 26
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