Due to Hurricane Ida flooding the bayou, the Week 1 tilt between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints will now be held at a neutral venue in Jacksonville. Sean Payton’s squad was already up against it running up against the defending NFC North champs for this season opener, and now his team will be without the benefit of a solid home field advantage in their corner. The Cheeseheads are once again expected to be one of the NFC’s frontrunners, while online sportsbooks aren’t nearly as bullish on the Saints as they enter the post Drew Brees era with it now looking up to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the NFC South futures odds. For reference sake, only the Bucs, Bills and Chiefs have shorter odds than the Packers to bring the Vince Lombardi Trophy back to “Title Town.”
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup on Sunday, September 12, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from the TIAA Bank Field on FOX.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Green Bay Packers -4
New Orleans Saints +4
Over/Under 50
Odds Analysis
When the betting odds initially hit the board with the game expected to be played in the Superdome, the Saints opened as 2.5-point favorites with the total lined at 49.5. The betting markets ultimately turned the Packers into field goal favorites. Now that it’s been moved to a neutral venue in TIAA Bank Field, Green Bay currently finds itself installed 4-point favorites with the O/U set at an even 50. The betting market isn’t giving New Orleans much of a shot to compete evidenced by 80 percent of the tickets and 82 percent of the money flowing the way of the green and gold. While the ticket count slightly favors the over at a 55 percent clip, the money expects points to be tough to come by with upwards of 94 percent of it currently hitting the under.
Matchup to Watch
Recently, the Saints have marched a pretty stout run defense onto the gridiron. Just last season, Cameron Jordan and his mates held opposing ground attacks to an average of just 93.9 yards (No. 4) and 3.8 yards per carry (No. 3). With that, it’s pretty safe to assume both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will have their work cut out for them. While New Orleans fielded a rock solid pass defense as well in allowing 217.0 yards per game (No. 5), it’s terribly beat up in the secondary right now due to injuries and suspensions. So much so that it just traded for the Texans Bradley Roby to shore up its cornerback position. Unfortunately, he will be unable to suit up for this one due to a suspension still being served from last season. With that, Green Bay’s pass catchers are going to have a field day in this one!
Player Prop Target
Davante Adams comes off a season in which he broke all kinds of franchise records en route to reeling in 115 receptions and turning them into 1,374 yards and a whopping 18 touchdowns. The effort – paired with Aaron Rodgers’ mastery - allowed for the Packers to march the league’s highest scoring offense and ninth ranked passing attack onto the field every passing week. The duo is said to be back in Green Bay for “One Last Dance.” It’s time to make some money off that train of thought, so I’m expecting the best wide receiver in the game to come out guns ablazed! Hit the over of his receiving yards prop which should hit the board in the mid to upper 80s. Didn’t it feel like he scored the first touchdown of every game last season? Make it a little more interesting by throwing some beer money on Davante to do it again, and go twice as large on him scoring at least one touchdown in the game regardless of it being a bit chalky.
Free ATS Pick
There will be spots to back the now Jameis Winston-led Saints; this however isn’t one of those times. His turnover prone ways are enough to dissuade me from entertaining the thought of backing New Orleans as neutral field dogs regardless of Payton excelling in the dog role a bulk of his career. I was actually shocked to see linemakers install the Saints favorites to win the game initially, and am a bit peeved my moneyline ticket placed on the Packers is ripped and sitting in a recycling dump now. Look for the Packers to make a big statement in this one. It enters the healthier of the two teams and has two of the best players in the league on its roster that just so happen to be dead set on lighting the league afire throughout 2021-22. Lay the points!
NFL Pick: Packers 33, Saints 13
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