At the start of the season, it looked like this game would be a doozy. The Buffalo Bills were the favorites to win the Super Bowl coming into this season, while the Green Bay Packers had three straight 13-win campaigns. However, while the Bills have lived up to (and even surpassed) preseason expectations, the Packers have fallen apart. Green Bay has lost three straight games ahead of this tilt, so the Packers are double-digit road underdogs per the NFL betting odds on Sunday Night Football.
The best team in the NFL will be back in action after a bye week as the Buffalo Bills headline Sunday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers. These teams will meet on Sunday, October 30, 2022, at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.
NFL Week 8 Betting Odds
Green Bay Packers +11
Buffalo Bills -11
Total 47.5
Money Line: Packers +410, Bills -540
Odds Analysis
Buffalo opened as a 10.5-point favorite in this game. Some may have expected the line to fall with the Aaron Rodgers’ aura, but the line has instead risen by a half-point over the course of the week. Meanwhile, the total has stayed in the 47-48 range since the line originally opened on Sunday night.
Green Bay Packers
This is a precarious spot for the Green Bay Packers. They have lost three straight games, and another loss would drop them to 3-5. They are currently 2.5 games behind the Minnesota Vikings for first place in the NFC North, and a loss here would put their postseason hopes in serious jeopardy.
Aaron Rodgers is having one of the worst seasons of his career, right after he signed a three-year, $150 million extension with the Packers. Green Bay is 23rd in scoring offense (18.3 PPG) and 20th in total offense (331.6 YPG). Rodgers is averaging just 6.5 YPA, and while he isn’t turning the ball over, he is checking down far more often than we have seen in the past.
Green Bay should be looking to run the ball more as Aaron Jones is averaging 5.5 YPC. However, Jones has just 78 carries this season, and he is somehow in a timeshare with A.J. Dillon who is averaging 3.9 YPC. The Packers don’t have an elite receiver either.
The Packers have a run defense that ranks in the bottom quarter of the NFL. This front seven is allowing 4.8 YPC and 139.6 YPG on the ground. The secondary has been solid, but the teeth of the defense has been lackluster.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is currently the odds-on favorite to being named NFL MVP. Buffalo is the best team in the NFL, and the Bills have been impressive despite playing a tough schedule through their first six games. They went on the road and beat the Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore Ravens, and the Kansas City Chiefs, and they blasted the Tennessee Titans at home.
This is the best offense in the NFL. Buffalo is averaging 29.3 PPG and 440.8 YPG because Allen is very hard to stop in this system. He has thrown for 1,980 yards (8.3 YPA) with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has two elite receivers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Allen also leads the team in rushing yards and is averaging 5.5 YPC.
The Bills have an elite defense too. Buffalo ranks first in total defense and scoring defense despite the loss of Micah Hyde and the absence of Tre’Davious White to this point. Greg Rousseau has really developed as a pass rusher, and Von Miller proved to be an excellent offseason addition. This unit is deep too, making Buffalo the team that no one wants to meet in the postseason.
Packers at Bills Free Pick
This has the potential to be a laugher. Buffalo has had two weeks to prepare for a disheartened Green Bay team, and this game could get very ugly. Rodgers might end up very frustrated if the Packers can’t establish the run against Buffalo’s front seven.
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