The defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, September 9th in a game that can be seen on NBC. The Cowboys will finally have Dak Prescott back under center, but the Cowboys are listed as a 7-point underdog against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Both teams have potent offenses and oddsmakers expect a high scoring game, as the total is listed at 51.5. Let’s look at the matchup and Week 1 NFL picks.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup on Thursday, September 9, 2021, at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dallas Cowboys +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7
Over/Under 51.5
Odds Analysis
The money has been on Tampa Bay in this game. The line opened with the Bucs listed as a 6-point favorite and Tampa is now laying 7 points. The total has actually dropped, as it opened at 53 and is down to 51.5. The Bucs have a defense that doesn’t get enough credit so perhaps the under may have some value.
Injury Report
There are no major injuries to report for either team. Starters are playing less and less in the preseason, so most teams come into their openers relatively healthy. That will change throughout the season and injuries will become very important, especially with the new 17-game schedule.
Key Matchups
There are two key matchups that I think will determine the outcome of this contest. The first one is Dak Prescott going against the Tampa Bay defense. Prescott has not played since Week 5 of last season. The Dallas held him out in the preseason which I think was a mistake, as Prescott needed to get some live reps. Rarely has a player been off for so long and come back and played well immediately. I think he will struggle at some point in this game. The Bucs were a good defensive team a year ago and I think they will force him into mistakes.
The second key matchup is Tom Brady going against the Dallas defense. The Cowboys defense last season was awful, as they allowed almost 30 points per game. The Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, but Quinn will have to prove himself again after failing in Atlanta. If Dallas can’t get some pressure on Brady, then this game is going to turn into a rout. Dallas has Randy Gregory, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong, but Gregory is overrated and Lawrence is coming off back surgery and is still working himself into shape.
Key Stats
The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings against the Bucs. The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Over is 4-0 in the Cowboys last 4 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings at Tampa Bay.
Free ATS Pick
I dislike going with the public, but I find it hard to make a case for Dallas in this game. The Bucs have the better offense, the better defense and they are playing at home. Perhaps if Prescott was in game shape and the offense was humming then I could get on board with Dallas. I would also like to see if Quinn has improved the defense before I get excited about taking the Cowboys. There are simply too many question marks for me with the Cowboys. We know the Bucs are going to be good and Brady has already said he is happy to be starting against a team like Dallas and playing in prime time on a Thursday. I’ll lay the points and take Tampa Bay and I will also play the game under the total.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27 Cowboys 13
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