The Cincinnati Bengals must feel like a team of destiny after their improbable run to Super Bowl LVI. There is one team standing in their way to the first NFL title in the franchise’s history, though. The Bengals ended a three-decade playoff winless streak in the wild card round then knocked off the AFC’s top two seeds on the road. They came back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game and have one more hurdle to jump in the Los Angeles Rams. And they’ll have to do it on the road again with the game on the Rams home field. LA was positioned as a 4-point favorite on the opening line.
Super Bowl LVI between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams takes place on Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Los Angeles Rams -4
Cincinnati Bengals +4
Total 48.5
Odds Analysis
The Rams hit the board as a 4-point favorite and a week later the line remains the same. Early action has been evenly split but we typically see things pick up closer to game time so we can expect movement in the coming days. We did see the total dip a point from its opening 49.5 to 48.5. Everybody loves an underdog and the Bengals certainly fit the bill. They went on the road to upset top-seed Tennessee, 19-16, in the divisional round and shocked KC in overtime, 27-24, as a 7-point dog. Cincy is 3-0 ATS in the postseason and has seven straight payouts dating back to the regular season. The Rams had their own comeback in the NFC Championship rallying from 10 points down in the fourth quarter for the 20-17 victory. They are 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS at SoFi Stadium this season and will look to repeat what Tampa Bay did last year beating KC 31-9 on its home field.
Key Injury
The Rams acquired Matthew Stafford to not only get them to the Super Bowl but win it. He’s halfway there but will likely be without Tyler Higbee for the big game. With Stafford throwing for nearly 4,900 yards during the regular season, the Rams had the NFL’s fifth-best pass offense. Cooper Kupp got most of the headlines because he got most of the passes winning the ‘triple crown’ by leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. Higbee was an underrated part of the passing game and his absence could be problematic for Stafford. Higbee had 61 catches during the regular season, second-most behind Kupp, for 560 yards and five scores. He was a security blanket for Stafford with most of his grabs on checkdowns, but they were impactful. Of his receptions, 33 resulted in a first down. Higbee sustained a knee injury in the first half of the NFC Championship after catching two passes for 18 yards. He totaled nine receptions for 115 yards in three playoff games.
Key Stat
We know Joe Burrow is a tough guy, but at some point the pounding he’s taken this season has to catch up with him. Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times during the regular season and he’s been brought down 12 times this postseason. In the divisional round game against Tennessee Burrow was sacked nine times, but the Bengals rallied behind kicker Evan McPherson for the win. We saw the offensive line tighten up against the Chiefs allowing only one sack, but that also had a lot to do with Burrow throwing shorter passes and getting the ball out of his hand quicker. The Rams can bring it up front with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd accounting for 27 of LA’s third-best 50 sacks during the regular season.
Free ATS Pick
Nobody expected the Bengals to be competing for a Super Bowl title this season so they really have nothing to lose. And they are a confident group with a lot of swagger after taking out the top two teams in the AFC. I didn’t think they could beat the Chiefs on the road and they showed how wrong I was, along with a lot of other folks. It’s hard to go against them considering the roll they’re on with Burrow coming up clutch and the defense making plays. But the Rams have a better offense than Tennessee and a better defense than Kansas City, and playing inside their home stadium will be a plus.
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams -4 / UNDER 48.5
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