A pair of teams looking to remain relevant in the NFC playoff picture hook up on Monday Night Football to conclude the Week 7 betting slate. Coming off their bye the New Orleans Saints look to win consecutive games for the first time hitting the board as a 3.5-point road betting favorite for their contest with the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are trying to stay afloat waiting for Russell Wilson to mend. In their first game in nearly a decade without Wilson starting the Seahawks fell in Pittsburgh, their second consecutive defeat dropping them to 2-4.
This regular season Week 7 matchup will take place on Monday, October 25, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA and will be televised on ESPN.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints -4.5
Seattle Seahawks +4.5
Total 42.5
Odds Analysis
We don’t often see Seattle as a home underdog, but that’s the case with New Orleans opening as a 3.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line. And the absence of Wilson has the betting public backing the Saints with action on the visitors moving the line to Saints -4.5. The Seahawks didn’t win their first game with Wilson on the shelf, falling 23-20 in overtime to Pittsburgh last week, but they did cover the 5.5-point closing line for their second ATS win in three games. The Saints have been good coming off a bye going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their previous five post-bye games. The teams have played just twice since the 2015 season with the Saints coming out on top both times while covering in the previous three encounters. The total took a dip to 42.5 after hitting the board at 43. If the number holds it’ll be the lowest in the series in 10 games. The OVER is 4-3 in the previous seven meetings.
Key Injury
I think it’s obvious where I’m going with this one. Whenever a team loses its starting quarterback there are nervous moments. In the case of the Seahawks they went 149 consecutive games with Wilson behind center until he sustained an injury against the Rams and missed last week’s contest. The only action Geno Smith had with the club was mop up duty and then suddenly he’s thrust into the starting role. Smith had a nice game against the Rams nearly leading them to a comeback win only to be denied by a late interception.
Smith didn’t play poorly last week in Pittsburgh, but another turnover proved costly. After leading the team back from a 10-point second half deficit and getting the game into overtime, Smith took his fifth sack deep in Seattle territory and fumbled the football setting the Steelers up for a game-winning field goal. It could have been a conservative approach by Pete Carroll, but Smith failed to stretch the field and didn’t get the most of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who combined for eight receptions and 93 yards. Smith needs to value the football and take some chances down the field against a good Saints defense that ranks second against the run and third in points allowed.
Key Stat
One reason why the Saints have been so good defensively is their ability to create turnovers. They’ve intercepted nine passes, third-most in the NFL, and have 10 takeaways overall to rank fifth. They’ve forced at least one turnover in every game and have forced multiple turnovers in three of their five contests. New Orleans has relied on its defense to win three of its first five games, a huge difference from the days when Drew Brees was quarterbacking and we saw a shootout almost every week.
Free ATS Pick
I talked about the job New Orleans has done creating turnovers, but they have a turnover machine at quarterback. Winston has tossed a lot of picks during his career and led the NFL with 30 in his final season with Tampa Bay. The Seahawks have been soft on defense this season, but opportunities to change the game with a turnover exist, and we saw the unit play its best game of the season last week against Pittsburgh. The group knows it has to step up with Wilson shelved and it will on Monday night to give the home team a much-needed victory.
NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks +4.5 / OVER 42.5
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