Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. It has uncharacteristically been a really tough start for this column this season and we are coming off a losing week in Week 6. Let’s take a look at the Week 7 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 7 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
New York Giants +3 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Giants offense is a mess with some of their top players out due to injury. This offense looks nothing like it should with injuries to Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton. The Giants also lost Andrew Thomas and Kadarius Toney this week. Daniel Jones returned from a concussion last week and didn’t play well and now he has to deal with a decimated offense around him. It was thought the Giants would be improved this season but we have seen nothing that indicates they are going to get better this season. Carolina has injury issues of their own with Christian McCaffrey out, but the Panthers at least have some hope on offense. This one is ugly, but we take the Giants plus the points.
Washington Football Team +8 at Green Bay Packers
The Packers are rolling in the NFC with the best record and they are solid home favorites against Washington. There is no reason to think that Green Bay is going to struggle in this one other than perhaps a letdown. Washington is not playing nearly as well defensively as they did a year ago and the offense is now struggling with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. The Packers are definitely a public team so that gives us some value and right now there is no doubt that Washington qualifies as an ugly dog.
New York Jets +7 at New England Patriots
What has happened to the Patriots? New England does not look anything like a playoff contender in the AFC. They have problems on both sides of the ball and head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t look like a genius without Tom Brady as his quarterback. Rookie Mac Jones has had some good moments, but he can’t make up for a bad defense and there is not a ton of talent surrounding him on offense. The public doesn’t want anything to do with the Jets so they are taking the Patriots at home, but there are real concerns about this New England team. The Jets have been a mess for most of this season and the public still thinks they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. We’ll take the Jets plus the points as an ugly dog.
Detroit Lions +14 at Los Angeles Rams
The Lions are the only winless team in the NFL and now there is internal strife with Detroit as head coach Dan Campbell called out quarterback Jared Goff last week. The Lions were very competitive and could have won a couple of their early games, but last week they were a disaster. It doesn’t figure to get any better this week on the road against a very good Los Angeles team. This one is ugly, but that is the point, as we take the Lions as an ugly dog.
Houston Texans +17.5 at Arizona Cardinals
The Texans were competitive with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback but they have really struggled with rookie Davis Mills under center. The Cardinals are the only unbeaten team in the NFL and they look like a Super Bowl contender. The public is all over the Cardinals in this game, as they are expecting another rout. It is hard to argue, but this is a huge line. We’ll take the Texans plus the points as an ugly dog.
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