Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We turned the corner last week with a 4-2 record in Week 4. Let’s take a look at the Week 5 Ugly Dog picks.
NFL Week 5 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
Miami Dolphins +10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Dolphins have lost three straight and look nothing like the team that was expected to contend in the AFC East this season. Miami still has a backup quarterback under center in Jacoby Brissett, as Tua is still out. The Dolphins shouldn’t be as bad as they are playing, but right now they definitely fit into the ugly dog category. They will be facing a Tampa Bay team that is coming off an emotional win over New England. The situation definitely favors the Dolphins, but going against Brady and the Bucs is always a risky proposition. We know that the public is going to be laying the points with Tampa so that does give us some added value. We’ll take the Dolphins as an ugly dog.
Jacksonville Jaguars +5 vs. Tennessee Titans
We are used to Jacksonville being in this column every week, but at least last week the Jaguars delivered a pointspread cover. Jacksonville has some talent on both sides of the ball, but they are still young and head coach Urban Meyer is finding out that life as an NFL coach is nothing like that of a college coach. Meyer is under fire more for his off the field antics than for his coaching decisions. Whether the Jaguars can put the Meyer distractions behind them this week is unclear. The Titans haven’t proven they are a great team, and their defense is suspect so this could be a high scoring game. We’ll take the Jaguars plus the points as an ugly dog.
Detroit Lions +8.5 at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions are still winless but they have some talent on the offensive side of the ball. Detroit could easily have a couple of wins this season, but they have not gotten many breaks. The Vikings are an overrated team under Mike Zimmer and one that could be torn apart if they don’t make the playoffs this season. The public is going to continue to go against the Lions, but I think this is a good spot for them going up against a Minnesota team that continually makes mistakes. The Detroit offense is capable of scoring against this Minnesota defense, so this could be another high scoring contest. We’ll take the points with the Lions as an ugly dog.
Houston Texans +9 vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots looked good last week even though they lost to Tampa Bay. Mac Jones played well and the defense kept the team in the game. The problem for the Patriots is that they still lost the game. This is definitely a letdown spot for the Patriots after playing Brady and the Bucs. Houston is really struggling without Tyrod Taylor under center and they are a go-against team for the public each week. We definitely have added value with the Texans this week, but this is still a play that has some risk and that is really what this column is all about. We’ll take the big points and go with the Texans as an ugly dog.
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