Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. There is no question that the 2021 season has not been a good one for the ugly dogs. Normally it is a matter of counting up the profits, but not this year. Let’s see if we can close things out on a good note. Let’s look at the Week 18 Ugly Dog picks.
NFL Week 18 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
Denver Broncos +10 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are still in the mix of the top seed in the AFC and a first-round playoff bye but they need to win this game and also have Tennessee lose at home to Houston. This game shouldn’t be a problem, as the Broncos have not played well recently and they look lost with Drew Lock under center. The Denver defense seems to have now packed it in for the season so the Chiefs should have a big day. This one is ugly, but we take the Broncos plus the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is the key game of the weekend for a number of teams looking to make the playoffs in the AFC. If the Colts win they are in as a Wild Card, but a loss opens the door for the winner of Pittsburgh and Baltimore to make the playoffs. It is hard to see Jacksonville doing much in this game, but this is the NFL and stranger things have happened. The Jaguars are a bad team right now with a quarterback in Trevor Lawrence who looks lost. We’ll take the Jaguars as an ugly dog.
New York Jets +17 at Buffalo Bills
The Jets have actually been playing hard late in the season but the public is all over the Bills at home in this game. The Bills need to win this game to wrap up the AFC East title and it is hard to see anything other than a big Buffalo win. This is a lot of points and New York has shown some signs of life recently, so perhaps the Jets can cover this big number. We’ll take the Jets as an ugly dog.
Carolina Panthers +8.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs should roll over the Panthers at home this week, but you have to wonder how motivated Tampa Bay will be in this game. The Bucs are currently the third seed and could move up to number two, but it is hard to see Tampa being that motivated for seeding. The Panthers have been a big disappointment this season and they have no quarterback that can be trusted. We’ll take the Panthers as an ugly dog.
Houston Texans +10.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans can clinch the top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the AFC Playoffs with a win on Sunday. The Titans really want the bye as it would give running back Derrick Henry another week to get ready for the playoffs. The Texans have actually looked decent in recent weeks with Davis Mills at quarterback so this may not be the rout everyone is expecting. We’ll take the Texans plus the big points as an ugly dog.
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