The New York Giants got off the schneid last week by going into New Orleans and handing the Saints an improbable overtime defeat as 7.5-point underdogs. The win amounted to their first of the 2021-22 NFL betting season. Since losing but covering against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the season opener, the Dallas Cowboys have been on a roll having defeated the Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers to move to 3-1 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS. With Big D currently stationed in the catbird seat of the NFC East, a win would go a long way if in fact the GMEN are to have a shot at division glory moving forward. On the flipside, Dallas would love nothing more than to snag another division win at home before making the trek to Foxboro which represents the first of seven straight non-divisional matchups lined up over the next few months. The Cowboys saw their recent dominance of the rivalry come to an end last season with the rivals splitting both regular season meetings. New York did however come out the pointspread victor at online sportsbooks each time.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup on Sunday, October 10, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium on FOX.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
New York Giants +7.5
Dallas Cowboys -7.5
Total 52
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines found the Cowboys favored by 8-points and the total set at a modest 49. The point spread has since been bet down a half-point to -7.5 even though 63 percent of the tickets and a whopping 82 percent of the money has funneled in on Dak and the Boys. Looks like respected sharp money accounts hammered the opener forcing linemakers to adjust just a skosh. But the real line movement has occurred with the total with it being steamed a full three points up to 52. This same scenario occurred back in Week 2 when the Cowboys paid a visit to Tinseltown to take on the Chargers. The O/U for that one closed at 55 from a 49-point opener and only 37 points hit the board. Regardless, 94 percent of tickets and nearly 100 percent of the money is of the belief these division rivals partake in a shootout. The over cashed each of the last two times these teams squared off in Big D with an average of 61.5 points scored.
Player Prop Target
Daniel Jones currently ranks out as the No. 7 ranked quarterback in fantasy circles. His ability to run the football has allowed for him to rank out within the top-10. However, he’s only managed 69 total yards through four played games against the Cowboys in his career. That equates to a 17.3 yard per game average which would likely fail to surpass his rushing prop. Dallas only conceding 81.0 yards per game on the ground doesn’t paint a picture of him surpassing that average in this spot. However, the Cowboys pass defense – regardless of Trevon Diggs lighting it up – has been beatable; very beatable! It’s allowing opposing quarterbacks to rip them for over 315 yards per game (No. 31) and an average of 7.5 yards per attempt (No. 23). Jones just blew up last week against a similar Saints pass defense with 402 yards, and he’s going to need to excel through the air in this one for the Giants to hang in against the Cowboys potent aerial attack. With that, I’m buying into the renaissance season of Mr. Jones and expect him to go one-for-one with Dak all game long. Hit the over of his passing yards prop.
Free ATS Pick
New York’s defense has been pitiful. It’s gotten next to no pressure on opposing quarterbacks with it accruing a total of six sacks (No. 31), and has only forced a total of four takeaways (No. 18). With Dallas only conceding an average of 1.8 sacks per game on the season, Prescott is likely to have all day to survey the field and get the ball into the hands of his rich plethora of pass catchers. With that, it’ll be up to the Giants to hold up their end of the bargain to make a game of this. I think they do just that. I still have my doubts about Dallas as a whole and was more bullish on the Giants than others heading into the regular season. With Saquon Barkley rediscovering his groove last week and the passing game still flourishing even without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, I truly believe the GMEN are being overlooked in this matchup. Gimme the points and look for the hated rivals to put on a show. Last team with the ball wins!
NFL Pick: Giants 34, Cowboys 31
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