To be the best you gotta beat the best. That’s what the Buffalo Bills face when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship. KC won the conference title for a second straight season with their 38-24 victory. Both teams had an easy time in the wild card round with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes directing potent offensive attacks. The teams combined to outscore their opponents 89-38 with each QB throwing five scoring passes. Buffalo exacted some revenge from last season’s playoff loss winning outright in Kansas City 38-20 as a 2.5-point dog in Week 5. The Bills are catching 2-points on the NFL betting line with a trip to the AFC Championship on the line.
This AFC Divisional Round playoff matchup will take place on Sunday, January 23, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO and will be televised on CBS.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills +2
Kansas City Chiefs -2
Total 55
Odds Analysis
The line has fluctuated since hitting the board with KC positioned as a 2-point favorite. Early action on the home team forced a spike to Chiefs -3 with recent buyback on the Bills bringing the number back down. The total also moved as low as 53 before settling back at its opening number of 55, the highest on the weekend betting board. And after what the teams did last week we know why. Buffalo routed New England, 47-17, scoring a touchdown on each of its first seven possessions. The Bills have won five in a row going 4-0-1 ATS. KC put up its second-highest point total of the season in a 42-21 win over the Steelers covering the 11-point spread. The Chiefs are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games and they are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at Arrowhead since losing to the Bills in Week 5.
Key Injury
There were some concerns about the Bills secondary and defense in general when star corner Tre’Davious White was lost for the year with a knee injury against the Saints on Thanksgiving. The unit responded and widely exceeded expectations, though the Bills didn’t face the most explosive offensive teams since White was shelved. Still, the group has played solid all season leading the NFL during the regular season in yards and points allowed while also being the best against the pass. That will all be tested by Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday. The Bills were able to slow New England’s run game last week allowing just 89 yards and the defense pestered Mac Jones intercepting two passes while recording three sacks.
Player to Watch
All eyes will be on the quarterbacks in this matchup. And for the Chiefs to advance they will need Mahomes to be at the top of his game. It’s safe to say the Chiefs aren’t the same team they were when the clubs met in Week 5. The early season struggles of Mahomes were evident in KC’s loss when he tossed a pair of picks and completed just 61 percent of his throws. The Chiefs fell to 2-3 at the time. Since then Mahomes has looked more like the guy who’s diced up opposing defenses throughout his career. The Chiefs are 11-2 since that game and they’ve cashed the OVER in their last six outings. Mahomes finished the regular season fourth in the NFL with 4,839 passing yards and tied for fourth with 37 touchdown strikes. After collecting just four first downs on their first five possessions, Mahomes led six straight touchdown drives in the route of Pittsburgh. He finished the game 30 of 39 for 404 yards with five scoring passes.
The Chiefs also benefitted from the play of Jerrick McKinnon, who saw extended playing time with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams injured. McKinnon had a game-high 61 rushing yards on 12 carries with an additional 81 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. His emergence gives Buffalo’s defense one more thing to think about.
Free ATS Pick
The teams are quite familiar with each other so don’t expect too much fancy stuff. It’s a matter of what team goes out and executes the best having the upperhand. I do expect this game to be closer than the previous two, which were decided by 14 and 18 points. It’s easy to think offense after what Mahomes and Allen did last week, but both teams are solid defensively. The Bills had the top ranked unit during the regular season and the Chiefs got better after a rugged start. Still, the teams can score having cashed the OVER in the last two games and KC has the edge playing at home.
NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2 / OVER 55
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