The Baltimore Ravens reversed course after a season-opening loss running their winning streak to three by beating the previously unbeaten Broncos 23-7 last week. A fixture in primetime matchups already this season, the Ravens put their streak on the line against the Indianapolis Colts in the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup. The Colts played a strong defensive game to beat Miami last week for their first win and will need another stellar performance to slow down Lamar Jackson, who has his club humming. For the second time this season the Ravens are at least a touchdown favorite spotting the visitors 7-points on the NFL betting line. They needed a record long field goal to edge Detroit in Week 3 as a 7.5-point favorite.
This matchup in Week 5 of the regular season will take place on Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at MT Bank Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indianapolis Colts +7
Baltimore Ravens -7
Total 45
Odds Analysis
There’s a lot to like about the Ravens heading into this matchup. Jackson directs a top-10 offense and the defense played its best game of the season in last week’s road cover in Denver. As such the spread was wagered up a half point from the opening Ravens -6.5. The Colts are feeling better after getting their first W. They beat the Dolphins outright 27-17 as a 2.5-point road dog improving to 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Indy has been a dog in every game this season, but the current line is the highest of any matchup. In their previous 11 games when catching at least 7-points on the closing line the Colts are 1-10 SU and 5-6 ATS. The total was wagered down to 45 after hitting the board at 46.5. The teams have cashed the UNDER in each of their eight previous meetings.
Player to Watch
He’s going to get plenty of views and rightfully so. Jackson is the Ravens’ offensive catalyst, the guy that makes the machine work. He’s been more of a runner than a passer since joining the league, but what a runner he’s been. Jackson rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons and placed in the top-10 in rushing among all ball-carriers both years. That part of his game isn’t a problem. What will give opponents fits is if LJ can become an effective passer, adding another element to the offense. Last week Jackson threw for 316 yards, the second 300-yard game of his career, and the passing attack has been a weapon.
Against the Lions Jackson threw for 287 yards converting a fourth-and-19 with a 36-yard completion to set up Justin Tucker’s record long game-winning field goal. It doesn’t sound like much, but Jackson is 12th in the NFL with 1,077 passing yards. He finished 22nd in that category the last two seasons. His success in the passing game makes one of the best rushing teams in the league even more effective and difficult to stop.
Key Injury
Putting added pressure on Carson Wentz is the loss of All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson, who went on IR with an ankle injury. The good news is that Nelson will be able to return in a few weeks. The bad news is that he’ll miss Monday’s game. Nelson missed the first game of his career last week and the Colts totaled 349 yards. They face a stiffer test this week against a Baltimore stop group that surrendered only 254 yards to the Broncos and registered five sacks. The unit also knocked Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater out of the game with a concussion. Ideally the Colts would like to keep the game close and not have to revert to throwing the football. The ground game produced 139 yards last week while Carson Wentz threw for 228 yards averaging just 9.5 yards per completion.
Free ATS Pick
Despite the injuries that had the season outlook looking bleak, the Ravens have rallied behind Jackson and are tied for the lead in the AFC North. And they’ve dominated in games against teams with a losing record winning 15 of the last 16 encounters by an average of close to 17 points. You could say the Ravens are one stop away from being undefeated. They’re also just a few points away from being a 1-win team. That’s how close games in the NFL are and catching a touchdown on the line is hard to pass up.
NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7 / UNDER 45
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