One of the best all-around running backs in the NFL over the last four seasons has been Alvin Kamara. The Tennessee product was criminally underused by Butch Jones during his time with the Volunteers, but that allowed Sean Payton to scoop up Kamara in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Since his debut, Kamara has been remarkably consistent as an efficient runner and one of the best receivers out of the backfield in the NFL.
Alvin Kamara Regular Season Rushing Yards
Over 925.5 -112
Under 925.5 -112
Although there will be an extra game in the 2021 season, the under is the best play with this prop bet. Kamara just barely ran for over 925 yards last season, and his previous high in rushing yards was 883 yards in 2018. He has yet to run the ball more than 200 times in a season, so that hurts his chances of surpassing this tournament.
Additionally, New Orleans has a reliable veteran running back in Latavius Murray. Murray had just 41 fewer carries than Kamara last season, and he was pretty effective by averaging 4.5 YPC. Devonta Freeman is currently on the roster too, so that might cut into Kamara’s workload as well.
One of the things likely working in favor of the over is a new quarterback. Drew Brees retired as the greatest quarterback in New Orleans’ history, leaving Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston to fight for the starting job. Hill saw more of the action under center last year, but Winston has been more impressive in preseason. Whichever quarterback ends up starting will likely hand the ball off more than Brees did in order to take some of the pressure off his shoulders.
Alvin Kamara Regular Season Receiving Yards
Over 650.5 -112
Under 650.5 -112
There’s a great chance that Kamara finishes with over 650 receiving yards. He has finished the year with at least 700 receiving yards in three of his four seasons, and he has been targeted at least 105 times in three of those seasons too. Kamara has been remarkably consistent with 81 receptions in his first three seasons and 83 receptions last year, so you know he will get the touches if he stays healthy.
The absence of Michael Thomas will help make this over an easy cash too. Thomas had a poor year with the Saints in 2020, and he is now going to miss an extended amount of time after undergoing ankle surgery in June. The lack of the team’s best receiver will lead to more opportunities for Kamara to catch the ball.
Alvin Kamara Total Receptions
Over 74.5 -112
Under 74.5 -112
This is an even better bet than the receiving yards wager. Kamara has had at least 81 receptions in each of his first four seasons. There is an extra game on the NFL schedule in 2021, providing Kamara with more opportunities to get to 75 receptions for the fifth straight season.
A new quarterback will really help in that regard too. Winston and Hill are likely to check down more than Brees did in the past, and they are more likely to try to target Kamara when under pressure.
Alvin Kamara Regular Season Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns
Over 13.5 -115
Under 13.5 -115
Kamara sailed over this total in both 2018 and 2020. He finished one touchdown short of 14 TDs as a rookie in 2017, and the only season where he didn’t find the end zone often was in 2019.
This offense won’t be as productive without Brees at the helm, but Kamara is likely to get more touches than he did in previous seasons. That makes the over a nice wager on this specific prop as well.
Will Alvin Kamara Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards?
Yes +5000
There is no chance that Alvin Kamara leads the NFL in rushing yards. Kamara is not a workhorse running back, and Sean Payton wants to protect his best offensive weapon. He has yet to carry the ball more than 200 times in a season, and he has never run for over 1,000 yards in a campaign.
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