Jamaica has to be flying high heading into Copa America Centenario. The Reggae Boyz were finalists in the Gold Cup last year in shocking fashion, and they've still got a real chance to get to the World Cup as well if they can play well in September's final round of qualifying. There's business to handle in the United States first.
Venezuela is one of the weakest South American nations, and if there was a team for Jamaica to face to kick off Copa America, this would have to be considered a dream matchup.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jamaica +195
Venezuela +165
Draw +205
Over/Under 2 (over -120)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Even though this is about as friendly of an opening match as Jamaica could have asked for, it isn't the favorite. The margin is very tight between these two teams for sure, and the fixture could easily go either way.
The Venezuelans are set at +165 on the moneyline, just a tick ahead of the +195 for Jamaica. On the Asian Handicap, Venezuela is set at PK -121.
The total is once again very low in this match at 2 and -120 vig on the under, though that shouldn't be considered surprising with the way early stages of big tournaments tend to play out.
RECENT FORM
Jamaica very well could be kicking itself for losing to Panama at home last November. That might end up being the decisive match in World Cup qualifying for the Reggae Boyz, as they now likely have to get the maximum six points from their last two qualifiers in September to move on to the hexagonal, the last stage of qualifying for Russia in 2018.
The results against Costa Rica were predictably suspect. The Reggae Boyz managed just one point from two matches versus one of the better teams in CONCACAF in March. In their one prep match for this tournament though, Jamaica pulled off an impressive 2-1 in at Chile, a stern reminder to Mexico and Uruguay that Group C in Copa America isn't just a two-team group.
Venezuela did win its first match of Copa America last year against Colombia, but since that point, it's got a woeful 1-4-9 record, getting blown away in most of those matches. Drawing against Galicia didn't do anything to help the confidence of a shaken team, though for our money, the Venezuelans did play better against Costa Rica on the road a few days ago and will be hoping for better against Guatemala in their last tune-up match on Wednesday night.
LIVE BETTING
Clearly, the path to winning this match is going to be in the midfield. Neither of these teams have elite level strikers to be discussing, and when you look back to what the Jamaicans were able to do well both in Copa America and the Gold Cup last year, it was the way their midfielders were able to help at the back and come up with the occasional spark up front.
Rodolph Austin will be wearing the captain's armband for this tournament for Jamaica, but Je-Vaughn Watson is the player to really watch out for. He was particularly good against the United States in that massive upset in the semifinals of the Gold Cup, and he's had a good year for the New England Revolution in the MLS as well.
Tomas Rincon and Luis Manuel Seijas are the rocks in the midfield for Venezuela, and they're going to be asked to do a lot of defending for sure over the course of this tournament. Their form has to be good for the Venezuelans to have any shot whatsoever both offensively and defensively, because the team just isn't experienced enough at either end of the pitch to be considered threatening for our money.
QUICK PICK
The under is the better of the two plays in this match as we see it, and it's the Venezuela offense which seems to be the bigger disappointment of the two. Maybe the match against Guatemala will be different, but the offense has been nowhere to be found for the Venezuelans in these last prep matches in May, as the team has scored a total of just two goals in the three games against suspect foes.
Manager Winston Shafer has installed a strong tactical edge for Jamaica at the back, and though the team hasn't been in the best form of late, we do suspect it will end up with a clean sheet to open Copa America. We'll go with the Reggae Boyz to pull off the modest upset, but we wouldn't be shocked if this match ended sans goal as well.
Copa America Odds: Jamaica 1, Venezuela 0
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