After three seasons as the No. 1 back in Cleveland, the Browns decided to reward Nick Chubb with a contract extension this summer. Chubb signed a three-year extension worth $36.6 million in late July, quieting any concerns of a potential holdout. It’s money well spent for Cleveland considering what we have seen from Chubb when he has been on the field. Nick Chubb has averaged at least 5.0 YPC in each of his three seasons. He is consistently graded as one of the NFL’s best runners in terms of expected yards per carry, and he is considered a foundational piece in Cleveland’s hopes of finally shaking off their past and making it to the Super Bowl. If that happens, every fan in the ‘Mistake By the Lake’ will be feeling some Chubb love.
Nick Chubb Regular Season Rushing Yards
Over 1350.5 -118
Under 1350.5 -106
The ground game has been emphasized under head coach Kevin Stefanski. The long-time Minnesota assistant learned to trust his running backs after several years with Adrian Peterson, so he has been more than happy to give Chubb a considerable number of carries. That led to Chubb nearly leading the NFL in rushing in 2019, but he was surpassed by Derrick Henry on the last day.
It was impressive to see Chubb surpass 1,000 yards in 2020 despite missing four games. He wasn’t given a ton of carries, as Stefanski wanted him to stay healthy after injuring his MCL. Regardless, Chubb ran for over 1,000 yards despite carrying the ball just 190 times thanks to a 5.6 YPC average.
One of the things working against Chubb this season is Kareem Hunt. While Chubb and Hunt combine to make one of the best running back tandems in the NFL, Hunt’s presence will hurt Chubb’s top-end output. Chubb is certainly the No. 1 back, but Hunt ended last year with eight more carries than his teammate. Hunt wasn’t nearly as effective though, averaging 4.2 YPC as he didn’t have a run longer than 33 yards.
The return of Odell Beckham Jr. could hurt Chubb in this regard too. While Beckham is a receiver, he is the team’s best wide-out, and there is only one ball. Stefanski leaned on the ground game even more when OBJ was out last season, but he could decide to trust Baker Mayfield more with Beckham and LSU teammate Jarvis Landry on the perimeter.
Cleveland has repeatedly tried to improve its offensive line through free agency and the draft. The Browns selected offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and they signed Jack Conklin away from Tennessee last offseason. The interior of this line is solid too, but Cleveland can ill-afford injury as the reserves are very inexperienced.
Nick Chubb Regular Season Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns
Over 12 -112
Under 12 -112
The under looks to be the play on this prop as Nick Chubb has yet to record more than 12 touchdowns in a season. Chubb did run for 12 touchdowns on just 190 carries in 2020, but that number was an aberration. It’s highly unlikely he has a similar percentage of carries for touchdowns in 2021, and he isn’t going to see that much more work in all likelihood.
Additionally, Chubb is not Cleveland’s receiving threat out of the backfield. He hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since his rookie season in 2018, and he caught just 16 passes in 2020. Kareem Hunt is the preferred receiving option at the position.
Will Nick Chubb Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards?
Yes +650
You can talk yourself into the “Yes” here. Chubb has averaged at least 5.0 YPC in each of his three NFL seasons, and he averaged a dazzling 5.6 YPC in 2020. It’s tempting to extrapolate that out and say he will lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2021, but it’s very unlikely he will get the carries needed to accomplish the feat. Chubb has yet to carry the ball 300 times or more in a season, and Hunt will be there to take away carries too. Don’t fall into the trap.
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