Are you ready for another week of ugly dog picks in the NFL? We are coming off our first losing week of the season, as we went 1-3-1 last week, but we are still 14-8 -1 ATS through the first five weeks of the season. Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We have had a lot of plays through the first five weeks of the season but that is not the case in Week 6. There are four teams on byes and it turns out we have just two plays for this week.
Let’s look at the NFL Week 6 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 6 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I said last week that I couldn't think of an uglier game than the one between Pittsburgh and Buffalo and it turned out just that way, as the Steelers were routed. This Pittsburgh team looks like one of the worst in the NFL this season. It is shocking to say that the Steelers are a bad team but right now that is the case. Pittsburgh is starting a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett and he is not ready to be an NFL starting quarterback. The Steelers don't have any real playmakers on offense so Pickett doesn't get much help. The defense has been a mess since T.J. Watt went down with an injury. Perhaps things will get better when he returns but that doesn't figure to be this week. The good news for the Steelers is that the Bucs don't look like world beaters. Tampa is just barely finding ways to win, as the offense with an aging Tom Brady looks out of sync. Perhaps the Steelers can hang around in this game at home. It is ugly, but we take Pittsburgh plus the points as an ugly dog.
Carolina Panthers +11 at Los Angeles Rams
The Panthers had finally seen enough of head coach Matt Rhule, as he was fired on Monday. He was just 11-27 with the Panthers, including 1-4 this season. Defensive pass game coordinator Steve Wilks was named the interim head coach. Before you get too excited about taking the Panthers with Wilks you should know that when he was head coach of the Cardinals in 2018 they went 3-13. He was fired the following season. Carolina also fired defensive coordinator Phil Snow and assistant special teams coach Ed Foley. Those moves were reportedly made with consultation with Wilks. The Panthers have all kinds of issues beyond who is coaching the team. It looks like they will be down to third string quarterback PJ Walker this week against the Rams. Baker Mayfield suffered a high ankle sprain last week and doesn't figure to be ready this week and Sam Darnold is also unlikely to be ready. The Panthers don't have many playmakers other than Christian McCaffrey so they will struggle this week against the Rams defense. The Rams haven't played well for most of this season, as they appear to have a Super Bowl hangover. This would seem to be a good game for the Rams to get well. There is no question this one is ugly, but again that is the point of this column. We take the Panthers plus the points as an ugly dog.
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