Are you ready for another week of ugly dog picks in the NFL? We are coming off a 4-4 record last week that takes the season record to 41-34-2 ATS. Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We have just three games to look at this week.
Let’s look at the NFL Week 18 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 18 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
Let me also say that Week 18 has a lot of variables to it, so we are going to take it very cautiously, as starters for some teams won’t play and the motivation of some teams is unclear. Regardless of what happens in Week 18, we will end the 2022-2023 NFL season on the plus side.
Arizona Cardinals +13.5 at San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL and head coach Kliff Kingsbury should be fired. We won’t know whether that will happen until after the season but what we do know is that the Cardinals are completely overmatched in this contest.
The 49ers look like the best team in the NFC and you can make a case they are a team that could beat Buffalo or Kansas City in the Super Bowl. The 49ers have won nine straight games and there is no reason to think they are going to have any kind of letdown this week against an overmatched Arizona team. The 49ers still have a chance to win the NFC’s top seed if the Eagles stumble this week against the Giants. This one is really ugly, but that is the point, as we take the Cardinals plus the big points.
Denver Broncos +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos actually played pretty well last week under an interim coach and they covered the spread against the Chiefs. This week’s game is different, as the Chargers and Broncos have nothing to play for. The Chargers are expected to play their starters, but there is really no motivation for Los Angeles to do much in this game. The Broncos also have no reason to win, as a win would just hurt their NFL Draft position, although the Seahawks are the team that holds Denver’s pick. Denver is simply not a good team right now and the Chargers are better. The Broncos are still an ugly dog, so we take them plus the points.
Chicago Bears +2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Another game where neither team has any incentive to win is this one between the Bears and Vikings. The Bears are talking about holding out Justin Fields and not playing him this week and the Vikings have no real reason to play their starters, as they would need San Francisco to lose to have any chance at the No. 2 seed and the Vikings may actually be better off with the No. 3 seed, as they would match up against the Giants in the Wild Card Playoffs but they would likely get Green Bay if the Packers win and the Vikings move up to the No. 2 seed. The Bears are simply awful on defense and look ugly, so we take the Bears plus the small points as an ugly dog.
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