Take everything you know about wagering on regular season NFL games and throw it out the window during the exhibition season. That’s because the rules are completely different, the rosters are full of unknowns and coaches are looking to evaluate personnel. In other words, there isn’t much of an emphasis on winning. And that’s why there are some vanilla lines at top NFL sportsbooks during the preseason, and especially when it comes to the first week of games.
The one caveat this year is the reduced number of preseason games. The new schedule eliminated one exhibition contest so we could see coaching strategies change with Week 1 in 2021 basically being the second week in any previous season. That is except for last year when the entire preseason was cancelled due to COVID.
Typical for the preseason a majority of Week 1 games have an opening line between 2-4 points with totals for every game in the mid to upper 30s. In addition, there are three road teams favored and an additional three games listed as a pick ‘em. An oddity is the line for the game between the Bengals and Buccaneers Again, we don’t usually see lines stray from the field goal range, that’s why seeing Tampa as a 6-point favorite is eye-catching but not unusual considering the direction of the clubs.
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason gets started on Thursday, August 12 with a pair of games. Three contests are slated for Friday, August 13, with 10 set for Saturday and a lone contest on Sunday. BookMaker.eu will have spreads and point totals for every game on the NFL schedule.
NFL Preseason Week 1 Schedule and Odds
Thursday, August 12
Washington Football Team -1.5, 35 at New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles -1, 34.5
Friday, August 13
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons PK, 38
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions PK, 37
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals -1, 39.5
Saturday, August 14
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears -3.5, 35
Denver Broncos -1.5, 34.5 at Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens -2.5, 35.5
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars -2, 37.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6, 34
New York Jets at New York Giants PK, 34
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers -3, 33.5
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers -3, 37
Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders -1.5, 37.5
Los Angeles Chargers -4, 34 at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, August 15
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts -1, 34.5
It’s time to sharpen those preseason handicapping skills since it’s been two years since we had an exhibition game. And with the Hall of Fame Game out of the way we can focus on a full slate of matchups. There is money to be won during the preseason but it takes a little time investment to handicap teams. More interesting than the contests is seeing how some of the new NFL players perform.
This certainly is a big season for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who selected Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick. And with Urban Meyer as their new head coach they have the star power. But will that translate into wins? Looking to change the culture you can expect Meyer to pull out all the stops in his NFL debut with the Jags a 2-point favorite over Cleveland.
Motivation of head coaches is one aspect of handicapping preseason games. There is a reason why six men have new jobs in 2021, and it aint cuase their teams were good. The regular season is sure to be different, but the new guys need any kind of win to stave off the nay-sayers and the exhibition games are one way of getting them.
Brandon Staley inherits a good situation with the Chargers and he just so happens to face his former team in the preseason opener. The Rams have traditionally rested regulars during the preseason and I don’t think Sean McVay is going to change his stripes. Besides, wouldn’t it be nice for the student to drop one on the teacher? I like the Bolts in this game despite laying four points.
With a warmup already in their pocket do the Cowboys and Steelers have an advantage? Oddsmakers don’t think so with both clubs listed as a 1-point underdog. It also doesn’t help that both are on the road. Dallas played well last week despite the loss and we can expect to see more regulars take snaps. And Mike McCarthy needs to show that the Boys are making strides.
Oddsmakers are trying to figure teams out during the preseason as well, so the house doesn’t have an advantage. Odds for most games are going to be around a field goal, give or take a few points. It’s not going to deviate much from that and you aren’t going to see a lot of line movement. If after doing your research you still have doubts about a game, the best strategy is to take the points.
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