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147th Running of the Belmont Stakes - American Pharoah Wins Triple Crown for the first time in 37 years
Racetrack: Belmont Park
Location: Elmont, New York
Date: June 6, 2015
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After two weeks without hearing all that much in terms of new entries to challenge American Pharoah for the Belmont Stakes and to keep him from capturing the Triple Crown, one final colt has had his name thrown into the hat. The Truth or Else will enter the Belmont Stakes, though he is very likely going to end up being the longest shot on the board.
On one glance, there isn't a heck of a lot to like about this Kenneth McPeek-trained colt. He only has two wins in his career in 12 races, and he has only hit the board a total of six times. He doesn't even have $300,000 in career earnings, and he has never won a graded stakes race.
He hasn't hit the board in a graded stakes race since the Southwest Stakes in February, and that second place finish was the only time in his career he finished better than third in a notable race.
That said, here in horse racing, you're only as good as your last race, and The Truth or Else's last race was a good one. Granted, it was only an allowance optional claiming race, but The Truth or Else blew through a field of five to win by 1 1/2 lengths.
Still, we love horses who win prep races for the Triple Crown races. Technically, that optional claiming race wasn't a preparation race for the Belmont Stakes, but American Pharoah has never seen Belmont Park in his life. The Truth or Else can say that he has won there, and sometimes, that makes a big difference.
The big problem that The Truth or Else has though, is that he has run up against American Pharoah three times, and all three times, he was put down with ease.
In fact, the results got worse and worse for The Truth or Else with each prep race leading up to and including the Arkansas Derby. He was 23 to 1 at the Southwest Stakes in which he finished second, and he improved to the second favorite at the Rebel Stakes, a race in which he was fourth best.
At the Arkansas Derby though, The Truth or Else went back to being a huge longshot at 28 to 1, and he ran like a big dog, too. He finished seventh behind a lot of horses who theoretically weren't anywhere near as good as he was.
In terms of running style, we know that The Truth or Else is going to run from off of the pace the entire way. This would have played a heck of a lot better in the Preakness Stakes, where there was a ton of speed in the race and very few closers. However, here in the Belmont, the mass majority of the horses in the field are going to try to pull the same trick to beat out American Pharoah.
It has already been seen time and time again than The Truth or Else isn't nearly good enough to beat American Pharoah, and in spite of the fact that he won his last race, he hasn't shown us that he is legitimately set to do any better than he did earlier in the year at Oaklawn Park.
Asking The Truth or Else to come back in the Belmont Stakes and win would be a huge chore, and just hitting the board isn't a likelihood either. Betting on this colt, even at 30 to 1 or so, would be nothing but a lottery ticket.
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