First place in the Big 12 and a potential spot in the College Football Playoff will be on the line when the Oklahoma Sooners and the TCU Horned Frogs square off this week. Both teams have already suffered one loss thanks to the surprising performance of giant-killers Iowa State, but both teams are still 5-1 in conference and 8-1 overall. For TCU, a victory almost certainly assures it of an 11-1 season with its two remaining opponents, Texas Tech and Baylor, a combined 2-10 in conference play.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Saturday, November 11, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at OU Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma. This game will be broadcast on FOX.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU +7
Oklahoma -7
Over/Under 62.5
Odds Analysis
Sharps jumped on TCU when this spread opened with the Sooners as an eight-point favorite. Relishing the chance to get the Horned Frogs and more than a touchdown, this was quickly bet down to seven. I expect the spread to remain there until kickoff since seven is such a pivotal number.
After struggling in Big 12 play through their first few games of the season, the Sooners have performed better lately. Oklahoma answered the call against Texas Tech, getting the win and the cover in Norman and outdueled Oklahoma State in Bedlam last week.
TCU has relied on its defense in its last four conference games and this unit has continued to come up large. Although the Horned Frogs were upset in Ames during this time, TCU allowed a combined 27 points in those four games.
This has been a great series ever since TCU joined the Big 12. Oklahoma has won four of the five meetings, but none of these games have been decided by more than one score.
Player to Watch
You may be tired of hearing about Baker Mayfield, but it’s impossible not to mention the Heisman Trophy favorite when discussing the Sooners. Mayfield has been phenomenal this season and is rewriting the Oklahoma record book. He has thrived in Lincoln Riley’s offense since transferring in from Texas Tech and is on pace to have his most productive season yet.
Mayfield is insanely efficient. He is averaging 11.9 yards per pass attempt and is completing 71.7 percent of his passes. Those numbers are incredible when you consider that Oklahoma lost almost all of its skill position players from last season.
He’s not just lighting up bad defenses either. Mayfield throttled Ohio State and was very good in the loss against Iowa State too. He has thrown for at least 280 yards and multiple touchdowns in every game and even has five rushing touchdowns in his last five games. He has done it all this year.
Mayfield was great against TCU last season, but had the worst game of his career the last time he played in Fort Worth. In that game, he completed just 45 percent of his passes for 127 yards and was replaced by Trevor Knight.
Coaching Angle
TCU has some of the best coaches in the Big 12 in head coach Gary Patterson and offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie. Patterson’s defenses have continually been the best in the Big 12, while Cumbie is one of the most highly regarded offensive coordinators in the country. Cumbie was approached by Charlie Strong to become the OC at Texas before Strong was fired, but TCU responded by making Cumbie the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the country.
Conversely, while Riley is an offensive genius and rightly hailed as such, defensive coordinator has had a hard time stopping the high-octane offenses in the Big 12. The Sooners are giving up 36.2 points per game in conference play.
Free ATS Pick
That’s the reason I love the Horned Frogs plus the points in this one. TCU has a great chance to knock off Oklahoma and are worth a moneyline wager too.
College Football Odds: TCU 38, Oklahoma 35
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