The Academy Awards Odds to Win - Leo's Year but Best Picture is Anyone's Guess

By  Vinnie Penn

Thursday, January 21st, 2016

The-Oscars-Picks

“The Revenant” topped all films with 12 nominations, including best picture, setting up best director nominee Alejandro Iñárritu for a potential repeat of last year’s “Birdman” success.

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Best picture nominee “Mad Max: Fury Road” earned 10 nominations — including a nod for George Miller for best director — while “The Martian” raked in seven. “Spotlight,” “The Big Short,” “Room” and “Bridge of Spies” were also nominated in multiple categories.

Nominations (by movie):

“The Revenant” – 12
“Mad Max: Fury Road” – 10
“The Martian” – 7
“Spotlight” – 6
“Bridge of Spies” – 6
“Carol” – 6
“The Big Short” – 5
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” – 5

Best picture

“Spotlight”
“The Big Short”
“Bridge of Spies”
“Brooklyn”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Room”

Prediction: "Spotlight" and "The Revenant" are the stand-outs at this point, as far as BookMaker is concerned, with the former looking at surprisingly strong Oscar odds of - 111 and the latter barely besting it at -125.

Actor in a leading role

Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”

Prediction: It's Leo's year, plain and simple. His odds scream it at -1786, with no one else in sight.

Actress in a leading role

Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”

Prediction: Cate versus Jennifer, in my opinion. But here at Bookmaker it's Brie Larson out in front with -700. Also on the board is Ronan, with a do-able +550. I have a soft-spot for Ronan, too, and found her performance as subtle as it was powerful. Love to see an upset here.

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson, “Room”
Alejandro Iñárritu, “The Revenant”
George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”
Adam McKay, “The Big Short”

Prediction: I think Miller, who recently announced he will not helm any more "Mad Max" films, will eke out the victory from Inarritu, who would be looking at back-to-back wins. He's stronger than Miller, coming in at -244, but Miller looks good at +260. McCarthy is solid enough for an upset with +412.

Actor in a supporting role

Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”

Prediction: This is a strong category with a lot of worthy contenders. Stallone is riding the Golden Globe wave, but Tom Hardy is so deserving. That said, Stallone's looking at -265 odds, with Rylance trailing at +240.

Actress in a supporting role

Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”

Prediction: Tough to call. My unique system that I use for award shows spits out Mara as the winner, but Jennifer Jason Leigh is long overdue. Leigh's in the field, though, while Mara is on the board with -155 odds. Vikander makes the board at +165 and Winslet looks strong, too, at +496.

Best animated feature film

“Anomalisa”
“Boy and the World”
“Inside Out”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie”
“When Marnie Was There”

Prediction: With the "Peanuts" feature notably absent, the field is wide open for the favorite, "Inside Out," to run away with this, especially with sweet -2500 odds. Long-shot "Anomolisa" enters the fray at +900.

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